Thursday, April 28, 2016

Analysis Shows Trump Will Change Color of Electoral Map...By Turning Red States Blue

The notion spouted by many supporters of Donald Trump is that his appeal to independents will change the color of the map, turning many Democratic-leaning states into Republican electoral college pickups.  An extensive analysis of state head-to-head polls show that instead of blue states red, Trump, if he is the nominee, is more likely to turn red states blue.

According to Real Clear Politics, head-to-head Trump v. Clinton polls have been done in 2016 in 20
Donald Trump
states.  Of those 20 states, Romney's 2012 performance beats Trump's poll numbers in 13 of them.  Of the seven states where Trump outperforms Romney, six were won by President Obama in 2012.  But the margins only suggest he might flip one of them - Minnesota.  In that state, Trump trails Clinton in the RCP average of polls by 2.3%.  Romney lost Minnesota by 17.69%.

The other states which Obama won but Trump outperforms Clinton are Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey and New York.  Trump still though polls behind in all those states by margins of 9.5%, 5%, 8.6% and 21.2%. He's unlikely to win any of them in a general election contest.

So while the polling suggests Trump might win Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, the analysis shows his unpopularity is more likely to put formerly Republican states into play.   Astonishingly Trump trails Clinton in a Utah head-to-head poll by 2%, a state Romney won in 2012 with 48.04% of the vote.  But lest one think that was an aberration due to Utah's Mormon leanings, Trump only leads Clinton by 2% in Texas, a state Romney won by 15.79%  Then you have North Carolina, a state that Romney narrowly won by 2.04% in 2012.  In head-to-head polling, Trump loses the state to Clinton by 2%.  And let's not forget Arizona a state Romney won by 9.06% in 2012. Trump loses it to Clinton by 3.5%.  Wait another one.  Trump only leads Clinton by 3% in Mississippi, a state Romney won by 11.5% of the vote.

(Note:  Although Indiana hasn't had Trump v. Clinton head-to-head polling done, you can bet the Hoosier state will be competitive for the Democrats if Trump is the Republican presidential candidate.)

Further, a Trump candidacy is likely to make several toss-up or leaning Democratic states that Romney lost in 2012, even more Democratic. Examples include Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Below is a table of the states where Trump underperforms Romney's 2012 numbers.

State                T v. C Poll       2012 Winner       2012 Margin
Arizona -3.5 Romney 9.06
California -29.7 Obama 23.12
Florida -2.2 Obama 0.88
Illinois -21.5 Obama 16.87
Maryland -34.6 Obama 26.07
Massachusetts -36 Obama 22.9
Mississippi 3 Romney 11.5
Missouri 7 Romney 9.38
New Hampshire -10.2 Obama 5.58
Ohio -4 Obama 2.98
Pennsylvania -7.4 Obama 5.38
Texas 2 Romney 15.79
Utah -2 Romney 48.04
Virginia -13 Obama 3.88
Wisconsin -10.7 Obama 6.94
North Carolina -2 Romney 2.04

The effect of Trump turning red states blue could have a devastating effect on the GOP's efforts to hold onto the House and Senate.  While a Ted Cruz might not win any more electoral votes than Mitt Romney did, you can bet his candidacy would at least help the Republicans hold onto states they had in 2012 and give the GOP a fighting shot to hold onto both the House and Senate.


Anonymous said...

Good analysis, Paul (unlike yesterday's posting that the Fiorina pick was "brilliant.") I think you are right on track with your thinking about the debacle that is about to unfold on the GOP -- I say Trump picks up the southern Bible Belt states and not much else -- we are about to witness a landslide of Goldwaterian proportions....perhaps the GOP might emerge a little stronger (and hopefully, with a different outlook) next time around....RIP GOP

MikeC said...

Like McCain did?

leon dixon said...

Little boys oughtn't play with matches nor lawyers with numbers. Look long enough and you can find whatever numbers you might wish to see fabricated. EG The only numbers that count are the votes that are counted.