Apology to Commentators on Blog

My apologies to those who have attempted to comment on my recent blog articles.  Apparently the feature is not working.  I will work to try to get it fixed.  Until then, perhaps people should just consider I am right so why bother with a response?  Unless, of course, it is to publicly congratulate me for being right.  I like it when people do that.

Toll Roads Appear on Horizon Thanks to Indiana General Assembly

During the 2017 Indiana General Assembly, our legislators increased the gas tax by 10 cents a gallon.  While I was concerned about such an increase, particularly because the gas tax is not dedicated 100% to road improvements, my bigger concern was a provision in the bill which bestowed upon the Governor the unilateral authority to impose tolls on Indiana interstates.  

I loathe toll roads.  Tolling limited access roads like interstates divert large volumes of traffic to non-

tolled, local roads not capable of handling the additional vehicles.   Those cars end up in neighborhoods where people work and play.  Their safety is endangered.   Home values decrease as more cars speed by residents' front doors.

There is one thing though I hate more than toll roads.  I utterly despise when legislative bodies abdicate their responsibility by giving the executive what should be legislative power, particularly when it is a blank check to raise my taxes (yes, tolls are a tax).  Undoubtedly Republican legislators who control the legislature were thinking they  could escape responsibility for raising taxes in the future by giving Governor Holcomb the power to impose tolls, a move that would be highly unpopular with voters.  Plus, their thinking is that since the Governor is a Republican, he can be trusted  to handle the tolling authority in a responsible, i.e. conservative, way. 

For the sake of taxpayers, let's hope so.   From an Indianapolis Star article from Monday:

 

A strategic plan that could clear the way for Indiana to add tolls to its interstate highways, including inside the I-465 loop in Indianapolis, is being developed by a state contractor.

The state just signed a $9.6 million contract with HNTB Indiana Inc. to study the impact of tolling and provide project planning if the state chooses to move forward with tolling

The administration of Gov. Eric Holcomb is required to study tolling under the road-funding plan lawmakers passed in 2017 but hasn't officially decided to impose the fees on motorists. 

Under the law, Holcomb also is permitted to draft a strategic plan "if the governor determines that tolling is the best means of achieving major interstate system improvements in Indiana." 

Delegates to the 1850 Indiana Constitution Convention purposefully gave the Indiana General Assembly the power to check the power of governor.  That is not done when the legislature bestows upon the Governor what is essentially legislative power.  It is particularly irresponsible when the legislature gives the governor the unfettered authority to raise taxes.  If tolls happen in Indiana, which looks very likely, let's not forget to blame the legislators who made those new taxes possible.

Closer Look at California Primary Results Reveals Democratic Surge in Participation

After writing about the California primary election results being favorable for the Democrats, I ran across an article written Dan Palmer of The Hill who wrote an article titled "There is No 'Blue Wave' in California."  In the article, Palmer aggregates the partisan vote in the California jungle primary and then concludes that, since Republican candidates received more vote than the Democratic candidts in virtually every key district the Democrats have targeted, the GOP will win those districts in the fall.

The article includes a description of Palmer's background:

Dan Palmer is a Republican donor and conservative political strategist. He served as executive director of United We Stand, planned the potential transition of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and supported the campaigns of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif) and President Trump.

Given Palmer's background, I am certain he is well aware of the absurdity of his political analysis.  No

doubt he is simply doing what so many conservative commentators are doing these days, telling their audience what they want to hear rather than the far more painful truth. (For another recent example, take Newt Gingrich's piece "The Red Wave is Growing.")  

In analyzing election results, you compare apples to apples, oranges to oranges.  Mid-term elections get compared to mid-term elections.  Presidential election years get compared to other presidential election years.  Why?  Those elections feature starkly different electorates.  Likewise, those who turn out for a general election are far different than those who turn out in the primary which proceeded it. 

That is a phenomenon I personally experienced while running for the House in 2000.  I won the primary for the northwest Indianapolis district.  My Republican opponent and I combined had the primary vote than did the Democrat.  But on the day of the general election, I did not beat my opponent 2-1, but rather only received, rounded off, 40% of the vote.  What happened?  Different electorate.  Voters did not like George W. Bush in that district, and they turned out in droves to vote against him.  My candidacy experienced the collateral damage of increased Democratic-leaning turnout spurred by a race at the top of the ticket.

Again, no doubt Palmer is well aware of the silliness of extrapolating primary vote to predict general election results.  But the primary election results can be used to measure partisan trends in those California Congressional districts.  In employing the apples to apples, oranges to oranges principle of political analysis, I have compared the aggregate partisan primary turnout in 2014 compared to 2018 in the key California districts at play this fall.  Below is what I found.

District 7 10 21 22 25 48 49 50 2014 GOP Vote 34,197 27,495 24,039 49,255 32,028 63,513 56,558 48,413 2014 GOP Pct 51.9 57.3 64.2 74.4 66.7 72.3 61.5 73.7 2014 Dem Vote 31,726 20,465 13,402 16,986 16,005 24,384 34,849 17,269 2014 Dem Pct 48.1 42.7 35.8 25.6 33.3 27.7 38.5 26.3 2018 GOP Vote 37,627 48,475 23,575 42,554 46,042 55,842 53,343 64,706 2018 GOP Pct 46.6 52.2 64.0 59.1 52.9 53.5 48.8 64.0 2018 Dem Vote 43,039 44,437 13,821 29,406 40,992 48,517 55,927 36,439 2018 Dem Pct 53.4 47.8 36.0 40.9 47.1 46.5 51.2 36.0 Democrat Primary Share Increase 10.6 10.2 0.4 30.6 27.6 37.6 25.4 19.4

These tables show that while both parties experienced much higher primary vote in 2018 than 2014, the Democrat primary vote share increased in every district, some districts significantly.  That is consistent with the markedly increased Democratic turnout that has has been seen in virtually every special election race since the 2016 presidential election.   Primary results do not mean the Republicans will lose those districts, however.  Again, the general election electorate is much different than the much smaller turnout that happens in a primary.

California Primary Election Results Fuel Democrats' Hope For a Congressional "Blue Wave"

A few years ago, California, via referendum, adopted a "jungle" primary system.  Basically the way it works is that all primary candidates are lumped onto one ballot for the voters and the top two candidates move on to the general election, regardless of party.

It was a reform supported by then Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.  However, like most election reforms, there have been unintended consequences.  One of those "unintended consequences" is that in a multi-candidate field, the primary vote could be so splintered that candidates from one of the

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Russia)

major parties could be closed out of competing in the fall despite the fact that party could prevail in the general election.  California is particularly ripe for such an outcome because the state has easy access ballot law leading to primary races featuring a lengthy list of candidates.  In several races on Tuesday, candidates finished second, and advanced to the general election round, with as little as 15% of the vote.

On election night 2018, the Democratic takeover of the House, if it happens, may come down to late-reporting California.  There are a number of takeover targets in California in which Republican congressional candidates but are vulnerable due to Trump's unpopularity in their district  But the jungle primary presented the very real possibility that the Democratic primary vote would be so splintered that the GOP candidates would take the top two positions, leaving the Democratic opponent closed out of a very winnable general election race.

A review of Tuesday nights election results reveals that with the exception of one congressional contest, California Democratic candidates avoided being shut out of the general election.  Here are the election results in a few of the most prominent such districts:

California 10
Denham (R)  24,640  37.7%
Harder (D)  10,244  15.7%'
Howze (R) 9,394  14.4%

Calilfornia 39
Kim (R) 18,851  22.0%
Cisneros (D) 16,623  19.4%
Liberatore (R) 11,990  14.0%

California 48
Rohrbacher (R) 33,198  30.4%
Keirstead (D) 18,827  17.2%
Rouda (D) 18,782  17.2%
Baugh (R) 17,601  16.1%

California 50
Hunter (R) 43,233 48.7%
Campa-Najjar (D) 14,445  16.3%
Wells (R) 11,626  13.1%

A notable exception is California 8, a district based in San Bernandino County that is currently represented by Rep. Paul Cook, a Republican.   That district though was always a long-shot for Democrats to win.

California 8
Cook (R) 29,403 41.5%
Donnelly (R) 16,024 22.6%
Doyle (D) 15,264 21.4%

By any objective measure, the Democrats should be happy with the California election results which set up the party to win several California congressional districts in the Fall.  But over at Fox News Trump TV, analysts don't deal in objectivity.  They deal in propaganda as well as the proverbial whistling while walking by the graveyard..  Fox News analysts are celebrating the second place primary finish of GOP gubernatorial candidate John Cox who had the enthusiastic backing of President Trump.  While the importance of having a major GOP statewide candidate on the general election ballot (top ballot races spur turnout and the Republicans were shut out in the CA Senate race) cannot be underestimated, the notion that a Republican, much less one closely tied to Trump, is going to win the California governorship this Fall is absurd. 

Equally absurd is one Fox analyst who extrapolated the party primary vote in key races to what is likely to happen in the general election.    As any political analyst knows, the voters who go to the polls in a low-turnout primary do not equate, in any way, those who vote in a general election.  I know that from personal experience.  As an Indiana house candidate for a district on the northwest side of Indianapolis, I won the GOP primary in 2000.  My primary vote and that of my GOP rival totaled more than twice the Democratic vote in the district.  So did I win the general election, much less 2-1?  Nope, I received about 40% (I always round up) of the vote that Fall.  Voters in my district did not like George W. Bush and Democratic-leaning voters turned out heavily to vote against him.

There was certainly nothing in Tuesday's California election results that indicates the possibility of a blue wave this fall has diminished.

A Constitutional Amendment Is Needed to Clarify and Limit Presidential Pardon Power

One semester while teaching political science classes, I assigned a unique exercise.  After reviewing the text of the Constitution and its amendments, including how various provisions in that document have been interpreted, I asked my students to write about a particular constitutional provision the Framers got wrong and how that provision should be changed.

I was unprepared for the response.  Most of my students wrote that the Constitution was perfect as was written.  Not a single syllable needed to be changed.  From my students' responses, you would think the assignment was to identify changes to the Bible.   While I had succeeded in teaching my students about what the Constitution said and what the courts have ruled the document's various provisions meant, I had failed to teach my students how to think creatively, to ponder, even question, the application of the

Constitution in practice.

Far from perfect, even the Framers realized very quickly they had a glitch in the original embodiment of the Electoral College, a problem that became apparent with our first constitutional crisis, an electoral college vote tie in 1800 between, then, Vice-President John Adams and Thomas Jefferson.  The 12th Amendment fixed that flaw, abandoning the idea of the single electoral vote (with the Vice-President being the runner-up) for the idea that electors would cast two votes, one for President and one Vice-President.  As a side note, no my conservative friends the Electoral College is not now operating as intended even as set out in the 12th Amendment.  The Electoral College has always intended to be a bulwark against the democratic impulses of the masses by leaving the decision of the President up to a wise group of citizen representatives elected by the less wise voters.  The Electoral College was never intended to rubber-stamp the decision of the voters, even at the state level.

I can easily think of things in the Constitution and its amendments that could, indeed should, be changed.  I think all 435 members of the House having to run every 2 years is a bit much.  The line between Congress' power to declare war and the President's powers as Commander-in-Chief could use clarification.    I was never sold on the two term limit for President established by the 22nd Amendment.  It makes the President a lame deck that second term, rending him (or her) ineffective.   I also think the 2nd Amendment was poorly crafted and could have better written (to more clearly protect private ownership of guns).  Then you have things in the Constitution that are written well, such as the 10th Amendment, which have been rendered practically useless by judicial interpretation.

One provision though that has not gotten much attention is the President's constitutional power to pardon.  Article II states:

The President...shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

That is it  The language does not appear to provide any limit (with the exception of impeachment and that it be a federal crime) to the President's power of impeachment.  That lack of context, lack of limiting language, led to the President and his "attorney" Rudy Giuliani to recently claim that the President has the absolute right to pardon anyone.  This interpretation allows for the legal use of the pardon power to obstruct the Mueller probe by pardoning those caught up in the investigation (including President pardoning himself).

Did the Framers actually intend the pardon power to be as sweeping and open-ended as suggested by the lack of limiting language in Article II?  Highly doubtful.  The Framers were, in fact, very fearful of centralized, unchecked power, including a strong chief executive exercising king-like powers. It makes no sense that the Framers intended to sharply curtail the power of the President in several areas (which limits have been eroded over the years thanks to a complicit Congress and the federal courts' expansive interpretation of the Commerce Clause) on one hand, but give the President absolute, unchecked power in another area.

The Framers intent can be garnered from looking at the history that guided the adoption of the pardon language.  In the late 18th Century, when our current Constitution containing the pardon language was drafted then ratified, criminal prosecutions were handled almost entirely by states.  There were very few federal crimes at the time of the Constitution.  Crimes like treason and bribery were handled by the feds from the early days of the Republic, but almost all other federal crimes required the involvement of  the federal government or its officials somehow.  Indeed, the very limited nature of the then federal criminal code is highlighted in Federal Paper #74 in which Alexander Hamilton reassures readers that the President's unilateral pardon power in the Constitution is not too broad (and there was no need for legislative approval) by discussing its application involving just one federal crime, treason.

During the last 150 years, our Congress has passed numerous federal criminal statutes, using as a bridge to that authority the Commerce Clause.  Many if not most state criminal laws now have a federal equivalent.  Today, our federal government employs an army of prosecutors and judges to enforce the ever increasing number of criminal statutes passed by Congress.

While the number of federal crimes and prosecutions has expanded exponentially, the language setting forth the President's pardon power remains the same.  While I would like to see the federal role in criminal law enforcement cut back substantially, that back door way of of placing proper limits on the President's pardon power seems to be a pipe dream.  To mix metaphors, that ship has sailed.

My proposal is more direct.  A simple constitutional amendment that requires that the United States Senate approve all pardons.  The Senate has to approve treaties, cabinet appointments, judges, why not pardons?

Senatorial approval of pardons is not that much of a hurdle for a President, but it would likely stop the problem of a President misusing his authority to pardon friends, political supporters, or even the more obscene use of the pardon power to obstruct a criminal investigation into wrongdoing involving the President's campaign or his administration.

President Trump's Efforts to Obstruct Mueller Investigation Continues With "Spygate" Nonsense

President Trump recently took a new angle in his push back against the Muller investigation, namely a claim that the the FBI surreptitiously placed a "spy" in his campaign to gather information on the contacts various Trump campaign officials were having with Russian officials.  According to Trump, "Spygate" was part of the bureau's political agenda to gather information to try to prevent the election of Donald Trump and help Hillary Clinton.

Of course, the truth is something else entirely.

During the campaign, Donald Trump made extensive use of the FBI's investigation of Hillary Clinton

for her handling of emails and her private server, conduct which could have led to the hacking of classified information.   (An ironic side note:  Trump has refused to take security measures to ensure the cell phone he uses for government business is not subject to hacking.  Hypocrisy?)  Opinion polls show a definite drop in support for Hillary Clinton after the FBI reopened that email investigation just days before the election.  Indeed, outside of the candidates themselves, no person in America is more responsible for Hillary Clinton losing and Trump being elected President than FBI Director James Comey. 

So when voters went to the polls, they knew all about the FBI's investigation involving Hillary Clinton. What was not made public by the FBI was that the agency was also conducting a counter intelligence investigation involving Russian interference into the election that had ensnared Trump campaign officials.

To recap, the Trump "Spygate" claim is that the FBI, at the behest of the Obama administration, embeded a "spy" in the Trump campaign to gather information to launch an investigation into Trump campaign involvement with Russian officials.  This, according to the theory, was done for political purposes, namely. to help Hillary Clinton defeat Donald Trump.  It does not.   But if Comey and the FBI were conducting this investigation to politically harm the Trump campaign, why was the fact of that investigation kept a secret until after the election?  

One thing though you quickly learn about Trump and his Kool-Aid drinking enablers is that facts simply do not matter when pursuing an agenda.   Indeed when asked about a sit-down Trump interview with Muller, Trump's TV lawyer Rudy Giuliani, said that might not be a good idea because truth is "relative" concept and that Trump's "truth" about what happened might not match up with Muller's.

Of course, the FBI did not embed a "spy" in the Trump campaign  Instead the FBI used a confidential informant to follow up on information it had learned regarding Russian officials contacting members of the Trump campaign team.  Confidential informants are used all the time during investigations and are an essential part of the activities of law enforcement.

Months before the election, both campaigns were specifically warned that the Russian government might try to interfere in the 2016 elections and to let the bureau know if they were contacted as part of this effort.  The Trump campaign then went on to have numerous contacts with Russian officials, including the notorious Trump Tower meeting hosted by the President's son, and said absolutely nothing to the FBI.   The Trump campaign was more than willing to accept help from Russia and other foreign countries to win the election.  Despite the claims of TV lawyer Giuliani, it is most certainly against the law for a candidate in a federal election to accept assistance from a foreign government or even a foreign national not associated with a government.

It looks more and more like Trump campaign officials, if not Trump himself, were involved in substantial criminal activity in an effort to win 2016 campaign.  Trump's "Spygate" nonsense is nothing more than a continued effort on his part to obstruct justice and undermine the legal institutions that would be handing down that justice.  Patriotic Americans who care about the rule of law and its democratic institutions cannot let that happen.

Fake Endorsements By the Marion County (Indianapolis) Republican Party

A Republican mailing recently set off one of my pet peeves.  On an oversized post card, Brian Durham, a candidate for Marion County Sheriff. claimed that he had been "endorsed by the Marion County Republican Party."

No, Brian, you were not endorsed by the Marion County Republican Party  You were endorsed by the
Marion County Republican Organization.  Even that claim is doubtful.  About 90% of the people voting at political party slating (endorsement) are not elected representatives of the party, but rather appointees of the county chairman.   And what's more, the people who vote for county chairman are almost all appointees of the county chairman.  

The notion that party endorsement process in Marion County represents the will of Republicans who live in Marion County.  

For the record, Brian, the Marion County Republican Party consists of those voters who show up at today's primary and select a GOP ballot. 

Indiana Senate Race Leaves True Conservatives with No GOP Option

Congressman Todd Rokita

Silly me.  As a Republican, I want to vote for candidates who believe in limited government, lower deficits, and is against wasteful spending measures.  I want to vote for people who will respect the rule of law and who run for office believing their job is not to act as a rubber stamp of other GOP officeholders, but to act with independence and integrity.   This morning, when I go in to vote in my Republican Primary, I want to vote for real Republicans, not Democrats who switch to the GOP to pursue a political opportunity.

Needless to say, I'm left with no choices in the Indiana Republican Senate Primary.

Todd Rokita.  Earlier in his political career, I liked Todd.  Although he was a conservative, he had a reform edge.  I had no problem with him using the bully pulpit of the Secretary of State's Office to push for gerrymandering reform.  But Rokita has proven this election cycle more than willing to give up his political soul and integrity to try to win an election.   He should get an award for working his way the furthest up President Trump's butt in an soul-less attempt to win the election.  It is not like he did not have stiff competition on that front.  In that endeavor, Rokita did not let hypocrisy get in his way.  He chided businessman Mike Braun for being a Democrat until 2012, while enthusiastically supporting another Democrat until 2012, President Donald Trump.

(Former) State Representative Mike Braun

Mike Braun:  I certainly don't have a problem with people making legitimate transitions from the Democrat to the Republican Party.  Indeed one of my favorite presidents, Ronald Reagan, had a well-documented, more than a decade long transition from being a Democrat to a conservative Republican.  But Braun's excuse for his Democratic-party voting history is nonsensical.  He says he voted Democrat
because that gave the most opportunity to influence local races in then Democratic-leaning Dubois County, is nonsense.  (Please don't for a second I assume that would be a legitimate excuse even if true.  Bottom line, if you are a dedicated Republican or Democrat, you pull that party's ballot in the primary. Period.)  There were plenty of competitive general election races on the ballot before 2012 and Jasper residence Braun always chose a Democratic ballot.   Braun had zero history of Republican activity until one day when he woke up and decided to run, successfully, for state representative.  And, Mike, knock it off about you not being a politician.   You served four years in our state legislature as a pretend Republican.

Congressman Luke Messer

Luke Messer:  Messer came across as the most thoughtful and reasonable of the candidates.  Note the past tense - that was before the election.  During the campaign, Messer has decided to jump in the fray, shredding any pretense of independence by fully embracing Trumpism.  Messer, who actually backed Florida Senator Mario Rubio for President, actually had the temerity to criticize Rokita for during the 2016 campaign for describing Trump as "vulgar, if not profane."  To which Rokita responded saying that was before he got to know Trump.  How intellectually dishonest of both of them.  Even Trump supporters admit the President is "vulgar, if not profane" and to get to know Trump simply confirms that fact.  As to Messer, he like Rokita, has little real life experience, working as a lobbyist before being elected to the state legislature.  And, I know you're not supposed to condemn someone for the activities of their spouse, but I can't get past the $240,000 attorney contract Messer's wife, Jennifer has with Fishers, a 26.5 hour a week job she supposedly does remotely while living in suburban Washington, D.C.  As an attorney who have watched many of my attorney friends struggle to make ends meet while working 60 hours a week, I find the claim that Jennifer Messer's part-time work is worth $240,000 is absurd.   Fishers could easily get a local and equally qualified local attorney to work part-time for a fraction of $240,000.  Jennifer Messer has her contract because of who she is married to, and anyone who says otherwise is not being honest.

Rokita, Braun and Messer have all indicated in their commercials that they support this administration's massive increase in debt and plans to waste more taxpayer money on such ridiculous expenditures such as "The Wall."  Neither Rokita, Braun or Messer have earned my vote in this morning's primary.  I can't see myself voting for any of the three in the Fall either.

Predictions?  I think Braun has a solid, albeit less than 50% win, with Rokita second and Messer a distant third.  I do not think any of the three beat Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly in the fall, however.  None of the GOP candidates ran with any plan of how to get back to sanity after the primary.  The key for GOP statewide success is doing well in the Indianapolis suburbs.  In the era of Trumpism, that's not good electoral footing for Republican candidates.  Trump's numbers in Hamilton County, the most populous Indianapolis-area county by far, were bad and they are unlikely any better now a year and a half later.

Trump Attorney Rudy Giuliani Opens Mouth, Sticks Foot in During Interview With Fox's Hannity

Donald Trump has always insisted that he's his best attorney.  With the dim-witted attorneys he hires, that might actually be true.  Michael Cohen, Ty Cobb, John Dowd and Jay Sekulow...have all managed to do incredibly dumb things as Trump's attorney.  Now add to that ignominious list of barristers the former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.  

In fairness, Giuliani, who in the 1980s was U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, might

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani

have been off his legal game.  It has been decades since he has been in a courtroom, after all.  Perhaps his legal reasoning skills have grown dull.

During an "interview" with Sean Hannity, Fox News' fiercest Trump sycophant, Giuliani appeared to veer off script, breaking the news that Donald Trump knew all about the $130,000 payment by his "attorney" Michael Cohen to Stormy Daniels, and that Trump, in fact, reimbursed Cohen for the payment.  (Trump had previously denied having sex with Stormy or knowing anything about the payoff.)   A giddy Giuliani, excited to break the news to the Fox audience, then declared to Hannity since campaign funds were not used for the payment, there was no campaign finance violation!

You could tell during the interview that even Hannity knew Giuliani had screwed up.  The Fox News host attempted to throw Giuliani a life line in the form of softball follow-up questions.  Giuliani, nonetheless, managed to swing and miss.  

Contrary to Giuliani's suggestion, nobody had ever suggested campaign funds were used for the Stormy Daniels' payment.  Ironically if campaign funds were used for such a purpose, assuming that was  properly reported, it would have likely been legal.  The problem is not that campaign funds were used for the Stormy payment, it is that campaign funds were not used.  

One would think Giuliani, who ran successfully for two terms as Mayor and ran, briefly, for President would know what an in kind political contribution is.  It was legal for Cohen to make the in-kind contribution as it far exceeded personal contribution limits in federal campaigns.   While it is legal for Trump to make a $130,000 contribution to his own campaign, that contribution still has to be reported.  And the fact Cohen fronted the money to be reimbursed later by Trump, also meant it was a loan that had to be reported.

During the Hannity interview, Giuliani brushed off any concerns about broken laws by saying they were just "FEC violations."  Yes, FEC violations which also happen to be crimes. 

Of course, one could argue that the Stormy Daniels' hush payment had nothing to do with the election.  The problem is that the Trump-Stormy hookup took place in 2006 and it wasn't until 2016, days before the election and just before the porn actress was set to go public with the story, that the hush payment was made.  As far as whether it was a campaign contribution, it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck.  

But the election violations may turn out to be the least of Cohen and Trump's legal problems, assuming, of course, Giuliani's assertion of what happened is accurate.  To move $130,000 through our post-9/11 banking system there have to be a number of representations made to banking officials regarding the source and purpose of such a large expenditure. Undoubtedly false representations would have been made along the way.  When the news broke of the payoff, Cohen said he took out a second mortgage to pay off Stormy Daniels.  In doing so, he likely would have had to make a representation to the bank regarding what the money will be used for, and if he lied on those bank forms that is likely a felony.  

But maybe Cohen didn't take out that second mortgage after all.  (It should be recorded and publicly available at the courthouse...not sure why no reporter has bothered to check.)  After all Cohen and his, undoubtedly now "former," client have a tendency to lie, a lot.

A new attorney, Emmett T. Flood, Clinton's impeachment attorney, has been added to the Trump legal team.  While he should raise the average IQ in the room when the Trump legal team gets together, it seems associating with the President causes people, both lawyers and non-lawyers, to do stupid things.  

New Polling Increase Democrats' Optimism of Winning the U.S. Senate

Make no mistake about it, for the Democrats to win control of the Senate, which now stands at 51-49 in favor of the Republicans, is as likely as drawing to an inside straight.  Possible, but highly unlikely.  There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 33 regular Senate elections and two special elections.  Democrats are defending 24 of those 35 seats.  If those numbers were not problematic enough, it is where those seats are that is the biggest concern for Democrats.  Montana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana, all states Donald Trump handily won, have Democratic Senators running for re-election.  Recent polling though suggests Democrats' odds of winning the Senate are increasing, albeit still long.

Senator Joe Donnelly (R-IN)

Yesterday, Gravis released a poll showing Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly trouncing the potential Republican nominees by double figures, i.e. Congressman Todd Rokita by 18 points, and Congressman Luke Messer by 10.  It does not appear that Gravis bothered to poll a general matchup with the third candidate in the GOP race, State Representative and businessman Mike Braun, which was a mistake as Braun polled as being in the lead for the GOP nomination with 26%.  Rokita was second at 16% and Messer trailed the filed at 13% in the primary matchup.

I believe, in the end, the nominee will be Braun or Rokita, but I believe Donnelly will win the general election by a small, but comfortable margin.  Braun and Rokita, and to a lesser degree Messer, are competing to appear the Trumpiest, but I think that designation will be an albatross around the winner's neckl in the general election.  Trump is not popular in the Indianapolis suburbs, particularly in Hamilton County, and those suburbs, which allow the Democratic strongholds of Marion and Lake County to be more than offset, are critical to the fortune of GOP statewide candidates.

Then you have West Virginia.  While the Democrats have a strong candidate in Joe Manchin running for re-election, Trump did win the state by over 42 points and remains popular there.  It was bad enough that Manchin was shown leading a potential GOP rival, West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrissey last November by over 20 points, it appears the Republicans may instead nominate Don Blankenship, a mining executive who was convicted of a felony for skirting regulations that could have prevented a mine explosion that killed 29 of Blankenship's workers.

Meanwhile, as to seats the Republicans are defending, it looks like my prediction that the Democrats have a real shot at winning Texas are being reflected in the polls.  A Quinnipiac poll issued yesterday showed incumbent Senator Ted Cruz clinging to only a 3 point, 47-44, lead over Democratic nominee Congressman Beto O'Rourke.   O'Rourke is also badly swamping Cruz in fundraising.

Then you have Tennessee, a state Trump won by 26 points.  In the Volunteer State, Republicans are defending a seat currently held by Bob Corker, a Trump critic, who has decided to not seek re-election. Trump enthusiast Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn has stepped into the void, but the Republican trails by 10 points former Democratic Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen.

Democrats also have a better than 50-50 chance of winning Republican seats in Nevada and Arizona, but will struggle to defend against Republican challengers in Missouri and Florida.

Yes, it is still a longshot for Democrats to gain control of the U.S. Senate, but it is now more plausible.

Seeing Blue Wave Coming, Speaker Ryan Announces He Will Not Seek Re-Election

Yesterday, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan resigned.  No doubt Trumpers, who have long hated the Wisconsin Republican, are celebrating.  They should not.

While I take him at his word that Ryan is resigning for family reasons, no doubt that is only part of the reason for his decision.  The major factor, which should give Trumpers pause, is that Ryan knows perfectly well he would not be in the Speaker's chair next year.  All signs point to the Democrats retaking the House next year in the mid-term elections.  The only question appears to be how many seats the Democrats win.  Forty seats or more appear attainable by the Democrats.  (24 are needed to flip control).  Given the trend of congressional special elections, it would appear that GOP seats never before seen as competitive are within reach of well-funded Democratic opponents.

Ryan was very popular in his district, winning his race 2016 by 35 points, President Trump only won Ryan's district by 10.3.  The Ryan retirement overshadowed another significant congressional retirement.  Republican Dennis Ross announced he was retiring after eight years.  He won his Tampa-area congressional district by 15 points in 2016, but Trump only won the district by 10.  As a side note, Ryan and Ross' 2016 election results were not an anomaly.   The rarely-mentioned fact is that Republican congressional candidates in most districts ran ahead of the President.

Ryan did not want to be part of the powerless minority in the House.  Even more so, he did not want to lead the fight as minority leader against the inevitable and, quite possibly successful, move by Democrats to impeach Trump in 2019.  Ryan's legacy would have been further tarnished by being put in a position in which he had to vigorously defend the President's conduct outlined in the upcoming Mueller report to Congress.  Ryan is only 48 and has plenty of time to re-enter the political scene.

I am deeply disappointed that Ryan turned out not to be the fiscal hawk he professed to be.  Ryan, after all, played a role in adding over 1.5 trillion dollars to our deficit...in a time of full employment and 3% growth.  It was not all Ryan's fault though.  He needed a Republican President to succeed in his fiscal goals, but the GOP instead chose to nominate a candidate who brags about his nickname, "The King of Debt," the one Republican presidential candidate who refused to consider taking on the problem of entitlements.  Ryan has long known that entitlement reform is the key to fixing the problem with debts.  Trump not only failed to provide Ryan the executive leadership he needed to succeed as Speaker, in one of the few areas in which Trump held a consistent position - entitlements, the President actively undercut Ryan's mission to get control of this country's debt.

Tea Party Abandons Principles, Values to Follow "The King of Debt"

Tonight, there will be another meeting of the Indianapolis Northside Tea Party.  I began going to these monthly meetings a few years ago.  I have always thought the Tea Party had gotten a bad rap in the media.  While there is no comprehensive set of beliefs that people who join local tea parties hold, there is some commonality.  Tea Party people shared (note the use of the past tense) a revulsion to big government, deficits, wasteful spending and corruption in government.  Members of the Indianapolis Northside Tea Party I attended also had a decided (albeit secondary) bent toward criminal justice reform, i.e. an opposition to things like civil forfeiture and the War on Drugs.

I liked that.  My fervent support of those issues (barely) allowed me to sit through cringe-inducing, xenophobic comments from Tea Party members about immigration (both legal and illegal), a lack of tolerance for America’s tradition of religious freedom (how dare Muslims think they have the same right of religious freedom as Christians?), and members’ opposition to free trade agreements and support for protectionist measures like tariffs, protectionist positions that undeniably have proven to greatly hurt the American economy and consumers in particular.  Those secondary political positions were certainly NEVER a part of the conservative agenda I had supported and fought for since I came of political age as a sophomore at Ball State University in 1980.

Returning to the core mission of the Tea Party – an opposition to deficits and wasteful spending – I always greatly appreciated the Tea Party members’ dedication to the cause, even while I believed they often had unrealistic views of how to accomplish those objectives given the limits of our democratic institutions.  But, unfortunately my view that Tea Party members were committed, overly principled fighters for core conservative fiscal positions and good government has proven to be dead wrong.

In 2015, New Yorker Donald J. Trump, a lifelong, liberal Democrat entered the political scene as a newly-minted Republican.  Trump had led his businesses into six bankruptcies and had credit so bad American banks would not lend him money.   But, it was not just banks.  Trump was well well-known as a deadbeat who would not pay his bills, trying at every turn to stiff employees and the small Mom and Pop businesses with whom he contracted.   (So much for the Trumpian claim he is for the little guy.)  Trump embraced the reputation he earned, calling himself "The King of Debt.”

One would think someone sporting the moniker “The King of Debt” would be the last candidate a fiscally-conservative group like the Tea Party would be embrace.  But embrace him they did.  Perhaps Tea Party members simply did not know Trump’s checkered history as a businessman or simply hoped  he would exhibit better fiscal habits as a politician.

But in 15 months, Donald J. Trump as President has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he will govern the same way he conducted himself as a businessman, spending taxpayer money recklessly and running up huge, unprecedented deficits.  (This includes a tax cut funded by deficit spending and the President signing a $1.3 trillion budget that increased spending on virtually every budgetary item.   Deficit spending to stimulate the economy while in a recession is arguable strategy, doing so when the economy is at full employment and growing at a 3% rate is insane.

On a personal level, the Trump cabinet and top officials are no more restrained fiscally.  Several have been exposed grossly wasting taxpayer money on lavish and unnecessary expenditures.  Of course, no one is more guilty of that than President Trump, who virtually every weekend has the American taxpayer fly him to Florida and then he sticks those same taxpayers with the bill for the Secret Service to rent carts to follow him around the golf course.  Then, you have the issue of the President, who has refused to put his assets in a blind trust, continually (ab)using his position to enrich himself, including via the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C., which caters to foreign dignitaries who are more than willing to combine their need for accommodations with a desire to curry favor with the President by stuffing money in his pocket.

Corruption within the Trump administration is easily the worst of any President in my lifetime.  And we have 32 months to go.  So much for the nonsense about Trump “draining the swamp.”

Given the principles on which it was founded, one would think Tea Party members would rebel against a President who has proven to be the biggest deficit spender of any President in history.  One would think they would object strongly to the personal waste of tax dollars by the President and top officials in his administration, new revelations of which are exposed every day.  Nope.  Tea Partiers continue to drink the Trump Kool-Aid, enthusiastically supporting the President despite his running an administration that is completely counter to Tea Party fiscal conservativism.

If those issues were not bad enough, we have a President who has made a mockery of other conservative values.  A key element of the success of the conservative movement has been social issues, primarily “family values.”    It is hard to hold true to those views, critical to evangelicals, when your chief proponent of the concept is a man who is a serial adulterer who brags about sexually assaulting women.   Of course, on this point, the evangelicals have proven to be the Tea Party equivalent when it comes to abandoning principles for political power.

Tea Party members like to call themselves “patriots.”  Yet they, in the next breath, express support for Trump’s attacks on American values like the rule of law, freedom of speech and his support for thuggish dictators over democratically-elected leaders.  The President and the Tea Party members who worship him as some sort of deity have given aid and comfort to the United States No. 1 enemy, Russia, by attacking the legitimacy of an investigation into that country’s meddling into the 2016 election, seeking to blame the American intelligence community and law enforcement instead, despite overwhelming evidence that that that meddling happened.  When I hear the “patriots” reference, I think back to my childhood when Jane Fonda was photographed on a North Vietnamese tank.  Although Vietnam was a huge mistake, Fonda was hardly a “patriot.”  Given their attacks on American values and traditions. neither President Trump or Tea Party members deserve to be call “patriots.”

Imagine for a second if a President named “Obama” or “Hillary Clinton” had done any of the aforementioned things Trump has done since he has taken office. The Tea Party members would be screaming for his/her impeachment.   Perhaps at tonight’s meeting it would be worthwhile to discuss the meaning of “hypocrisy” and how it relates to the Tea Party’s blind and unquestioning support for Present Trump.

Of course, I overgeneralize in this piece.  No doubt that there are several Tea Party members who have refused to abandon their principles to drink the Trump Kool-Aid.  To them I applaud and apologize…profusely. 

Needless to say, I will not be at the Tea Party meeting tonight.   

State of Indiana Settles Lawsuit Over Treasurer Official's Termination

Earlier this year, the State of Indiana completed the settlement of lawsuit which claimed that former Chief Deputy and General Counsel for the Indiana State Treasurer’s Office Jim Holden had been wrongfully terminated from employment.  On June 2, 2014, Holden had been given a three-year contract by then Treasurer Richard Mourdock to provide legal services for the Indiana Board for Depositories, a body that is overseen by the State Treasurer.  

Jim Holden

Holden had served as manager of Mourdock’s Senate campaign in 2012, which campaign shocked the political world by knocking off incumbent Richard Lugar in the GOP primary only to lose to Democrat Joe Donnelly later that Fall.  Almost two years later, Mourdock resigned before the end of his four-year term.  Kelly Mitchell was subsequently elected Treasurer that Fall and took office early, replacing the 

interim Treasurer, on November 18, 2014.

One of Kelly’s first moves as Treasurer was to terminate Holden from his job at the Treasurer’s Office and cancel his three year contract, even though Holden had been called up to active duty and had not yet transferred from his position in the Treasurer’s Office to working for the Board.  Mitchell claimed that the termination was necessary because there was a conflict of interest in the Holden appointment because the Treasurer of the State directed the day-to-day activities of the Indiana Board for Depositories.  

Although Holden was accused of not having received a clearance from the State Ethics Commission or making any of the required ethics disclosure, Holden had, in fact, consulted the Executive Director of the Indiana Ethics Commission and filed a Uniform Conflict of Interest Ethics Disclosure about the employment.  An unemployment insurance state administrative law judge found Holden had “exercised all due diligence to ensure the employment was not a conflict of interest.” 

In her termination decision, Mitchell also accused Holden of committing a felony by violating IC 35-44-1-3, a statute which criminalizes certain conflicts of interest by public officials.  That statute, however, had been repealed.  As part of the settlement, Mitchell issued a statement in which she admitted that the statute her office relied on had been earlier repealed and that Holden had done what was legally required to address any potential conflict of interest.  

Holden filed his lawsuit in Marion County Superior Court in March of 2015.  After spending 2 ½ years mired in pre-trial motions and discovery disputes, the case was preliminarily resolved in the Fall of 2017 via mandatory mediation.  The additional delay, which pushed the matter inti 2018, was a result of the settlement having to be approved by the Governor. 

As part of the resolution of the case, the State agreed to pay Holden $92,500 and to remove him from the “do not rehire” list maintained by the State of Indiana.  Interestingly, in a press release issued in conjunction with the settlement, Holden noted that the “do not rehire” list maintained by the State of Indiana is in violation of state blacklisting laws.

Holden spoke of his experience fighting, successfully, the State on a wrongful termination matter: “Even though I was a 15-year state employee who had served under three State Treasurers, because I worked for Richard Mourdock and supported his Senate candidacy, the Republican establishment and donor-lobbyist class wanted to retaliate against me.  Mitchell was just doing their bidding.”

Holden continued: “Ironically, I had arranged to transfer to the Indiana Board for Depositories so that Kelly Mitchell would be able to appoint her own Chief Deputy Treasurer and not be required to keep the position open for me while I was on active duty as mandated by federal law.  I asked for a contract, because after so many years of working for politicians, I don’t trust politicians to do the right thing.  Kelly Mitchell proved my instincts right.”

Holden’s first quote above relates to his work helping his boss Treasurer Richard Mourdock defeat long-time Indiana Senator Richard Lugar in the Republican primary.   While many Establishment Republicans still sing Lugar’s praises, the fact is Richard Lugar years earlier had left Indiana far behind, both physically and mentally.  Republicans in the Hoosier political trenches had complained that Lugar would not support GOP candidates with endorsements or fundraising and would not even bother to return to Indiana for Republican Lincoln Day Dinners in the Hoosier.  Lugar even went so far as sending threating letters to Indiana GOP candidates warning that they are not allowed to use pictures of the candidate with Lugar in their campaign ads.

On the rare occasions when Lugar did venture back to Indiana, he would have to stay in hotel rooms because he had no residence in the state.  When I investigated the matter, I found Lugar for decades had been using the address of a home he had sold some 30 years earlier as his declared “residence” to cast votes in Indiana.  The legality of that practice is questionable at best.  This is especially so when, near the same time frame, prosecutors were aggressively pursuing former Secretary of State Charlie White for a violation of the voting fraud statute based on what he declared his residence to be for one election.

I have known Jim Holden from my earliest involvement in Marion County politics in the late 1980s.  Jim is a true believer, someone who not only supports the traditional conservative ideology communicated so eloquently by Ronald Reagan, but someone willing to fight for those beliefs even if it means stepping on some GOP establishment toes.  It is good to see Jim succeed in his lawsuit and to set the record straight regarding his termination.

Indianapolis Star's "Mother" Shot at Mike Pence Misses the Mark

The Indianapolis Star never misses an opportunity to take a shot at Vice President Mike Pence.  Today's attempt though fell missed the mark by a mile.

Star Editors dispatched writer Justin L. Mack to determine whether it was true that Pence calls his wife, Karen, "Mother."   Several people were interviewed during this Star "fact check" session, some of which confirmed the nickname, while others denied it.

Of course, underlying the story is Star's assumption that a husband does not call his wife "Mother," that this is simply not done and that Pence is weird for doing so.   Star's readers, including myself, quickly let Mack and his editor bosses know in the comments section that the Star's assumption underlying the story is flat out wrong.

Growing up I quite often heard men refer to their wives, the mother of their children, as "Mother."  The term uttered by a husband about his wife, is considered  a term of respect and endearment.  Granted most of the men who used that term have died off and the nickname has become outdated over time.  But since when has Pence ever been a person on the cutting edge of trends?  He, after all, still uses an AOL email account.

I am a bit shocked that the Star editors, who are presumably older than Mack, did not know that it is very common for an older man to call his wife "Mother."   Or perhaps the Star editors knew and simply did not care.  Taking a shot at the former Governor now Vice President is so much easier than to concern oneself with facts.

The Passing of a Personal Hero, Shirley Justice

So sorry I missed the story last week.  WTHR issued this story last week:

INDIANAPOLIS (WTHR) - A mother and ex-wife shot multiple times outside her child's daycare four years ago has passed away. 

Despite multiple surgeries, doctors had to leave several of the bullets inside her body. Shirley Justice suffered massive internal injuries to several major organs. 

Shirley Justice talked exclusively with Andrea Morehead during her uphill battle to recover after being shot 14 times. 

It would mean several surgeries and a lot of determination.
On February 18, 2014, Justice dropped off her daughter at Kinder Kare Daycare on West 38th Street in Eagle Creek. That's when her estranged husband Christopher Justice surprised her with a gun outside. Shirley was shot more than a dozen times and clung to life. 

... 

Christopher Justice is serving a 24-year sentence for attempted murder after being convicted last year. His trial had several delays because Shirley needed more time to recover so she could testify about the shooting. 

"She would sometimes call me and say another bullet fell out," said Det. [Marcus] Kennedy. "She was a super strong lady, it broke my heart, too, to hear she passed away." 

Kennedy is one of IMPD's veteran homicide detectives assigned to the case. He had to write the final probable cause against Justice with help from Shirley about the gunfire. Kennedy eventually got to talk to her at her hospital bedside and during her years of rehab. 

Eyewitness News has learned despite Shirley Justice not surviving the massive injuries, prosecutors have decided Indiana's jeopardy law doesn't allow them to upgrade his charges to murder.

I never got to personally meet Shirley Justice. But I knew of her courage.  I spoke by phone to Shirley about problems she had when she tried to "lazy judge" a Marion County Superior Court judge who had failed to make a timely ruling in a custody dispute.  The judge had apparently issued a ruling after the lazy judge filing (which judges are not allowed to do), finding against Shirley and for Christopher. (I researched the court file and confirmed what Shirley was claiming.) After the shooting, the case was taken away from the judge by the Indiana Supreme Court. 

Shirley had wanted to get her story out and knew I was not only an attorney but a blogger.  It was shortly after our conversation that she was shot fourteen times by her husband, Christopher Justice outside the day care center.  I went ahead and wrote the story only to find shortly thereafter a grievance filed against me by the Disciplinary Commission contending that I had violated attorney-client privilege, revealing confidential details against Shirley's wishes.  

I think the Commission simply assumed Shirley was going to die soon and would not be around to contradict the allegation the Commission was essentially making on her behalf.  But Shirley did not die.  As she clung to her life, she talked to a Disciplinary Commission investigator (which conversation she recorded) and let him know in no uncertain terms that I did not violate her confidentiality and she had wanted me to write about her case on my blog.  She said she wanted the grievance against me dropped.  The Commission did exactly that, no doubt reluctantly since the Commission had been on a warpath against me following critical blog articles I had written about the Commission and its Executive Secretary G. Michael Witte.

In the years that followed, I lost touch with Shirley.  I did not know that she continued to suffer physical problems from the shooting that would eventually take her life.  I so regret not knowing that and not learning of her passing until this week.  I would have welcomed the opportunity to attend her funeral to tell her family what a wonderful and courageous woman she was.  Shirley Justice is nothing less than a hero to me, someone who did the right thing even when it was not easy to do so.  This world could use a lot more people like Shirley Justice.

Note:  Shirley's family has established a Go Fund Me page to help defray the considerable expenses associated with her passing.  Please consider contributing.

Pennsylvania Special Election Provides Yet More Evidence Mid-Terms Will Feature Democratic Tidal Wave

Yesterday, Democrat Conor Lamb defeated his Republican opponent Rick Saccone in a Pennsylvania special election to fill the vacancy left when Republican congressman Tim Murphy resigned.  Candidate Donald Trump had won the district, Pennsylvania Congressional District 18, by 20 points in 2016.  The district is so reliably Republican that the Democrats did not even bother to field a candidate against Murphy in 2014 and 2016.   Conor won the razor thin victory by running as a defiantly moderate Democrat, someone whose views were not at all in line with his party's liberalism, but whose views better match the conservative leaning voters of District 18.  Although President Donald Trump came to the district the weekend before the election to fire up the Republican base, his efforts, as they did in

Conor Lamb

Alabama, failed to inspire the GOP faithful.  They weren't buying what Trump was selling.

I can hear the excuses now.  Lamb ran as a Republican-lite.  Saccone was a horrible candidate.  Yeah, so what?  The fact is District 18 is a heavy, heavy Republican district.  When the numbers are that stacked in the GOP's favor, the Democrats cannot win a district simply by running a candidate who talks like a Republican even if the GOP fields a candidate who can't walk and chew gum at the same time.

Make no mistake about it...what gave Conor Lamb a shot at victory is the unpopularity of Donald Trump.   Trump's presidency has been an unmitigated failure.  For 14 months, the Trump administration has teetered from one crisis to another, with the President taking pains to alienate every demographic group with the exception of under-educated white men.  While Republicans still back Trump by 80% plus, the fact is independents, those people who voted for Trump because they couldn't stand Hillary, have long ago left and they show no sign of coming back.  Trumpers don't get that.  They think Donald Trump won some sweeping victory on November 8, 2016, when in fact Trump only won a narrow victory in the Electoral College because he faced the most spectacularly unpopular candidate the Democrats could find.

For Trumpers, the approaching blue wave due to hit the shores on November 6th (which even they must by now admit is coming) surely must be someone else's fault.  How about George Soros?  Nancy Pelosi?  Chuck Schumer?  Bob Mueller?  Paul Ryan?  Mitch McConnell?  Lord knows the Kool-Aid drinking Trumpers will never actually hold the President responsible for anything.  The ethos of "personal responsibility" does not apply when the leader of your cult is named Donald J. Trump.

But it should.  Trump and his embarrassingly incompetent and scandal-riddled tenure is destroying the party I have believed in and supported since my 18th birthday.  It will take a generation to rebuild the Republican party post-Trump.  The sooner that process begins the better.

White House Firing Stuns Washington

No, I'm not talking about the firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson this morning.  That was not unexpected.

Instead, CNBC reports on the unexpected personnel development:

President Donald Trump's personal assistant, John McEntee, was fired Monday for unspecified security reasons and was removed from the White House, according to a Tuesday report from The Wall Street Journal. 

He has now joined Trump's re-election campaign as a senior advisor. Trump 2016 campaign spokeswoman Katrina Pierson is also joining the 2020 re-election campaign as a senior advisor. 

"Katrina and John will play pivotal roles on our campaign once again as we develop a winning strategy through 2020 to Keep America Great," said Michael Glassner, the campaign's chief operating officer. "They will also contribute tremendously to our national engagement in the mid-term elections this year. We're delighted to have them back on the team." 

McEntee, who served on Trump's winning presidential campaign beginning in 2015, joined the Trump administration after the election. He was escorted off the White House grounds on Monday over an "unspecified security issue," the Journal reported, citing sources. 

A CNN reporter later tweeted, citing a source familiar with the matter, that McEntee was terminated because the Department of Homeland Security is investigating him for "serious financial crimes" that are not related to Trump.

Race for 2020 GOP Presidential Nomination Heats Up

Thus far, most of the focus on Election 2020 has been on the Democratic side as scores of possible candidates appear on the verge of tossing their respective hats into the ring.  What though has gotten loss coverage is the fact that things are heating up on the Republican side as well.  Arizona Senator Jeff Flake is attending a "Politics and Eggs" event in New Hampshire on March 16th where he will give a speech titled "Country Over Party."

The Washington Times reports on Flake's response to speculation he may run for President:

“I don’t rule anything out, but it’s not in my plans,” Flake told ABC News in December. But the Arizona senator said he believes a Trump re-election bid will “leave a huge swatch of voters looking for something else.” 

Meanwhile, Ohio Governor John Kasich, a GOP primary finalist in 2016, appears to be prepping for  a 2020 run.   Politico reports:

John Kasich’s inner circle is gearing up for a possible presidential run in 2020 — actively weighing the prospect of a Republican primary challenge to President Donald Trump against the feasibility of a long-shot general election campaign as an independent.

And there’s one consideration driving their thinking perhaps more than any other: what some of his advisers consider the very real, maybe even likely, possibility that Trump doesn’t run again — by choice or not — or that the president becomes so politically hobbled by late next year that the political landscape fundamentally shifts in Kasich’s favor. That’s one reason Kasich has yet to decide whether to pursue an independent bid or a primary challenge.

Nine Republicans in or close with Kasich’s political operation told POLITICO that the departing Ohio governor has been working with a tight clutch of advisers and informally surveying donors and fellow pols about the shape of his next steps. So far, he has solidified his role as a go-to commentator for national news shows while stacking his schedule with trips including an April return to New Hampshire.

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

Donald Trump right now has a cult-like grip over 80% of the shrinking GOP electorate.  Falke and Kasich would not have a chance to win if they ran today.  Undoubtedly Flake and Kasich know that and they are betting that Trump won't be as popular with Republican voters on the first day of 2018 as he will be come the Summer of 2019, when the Presidential race heats up in earnest.  That's not a long-shot gamble.  The Mueller investigation appears to be getting closer and closer to President Trump.  That the independent counsel will end up concluding that Trump or, at least, people very close to him, engaged in a  conspiracy with Russians to win the 2016 election, accepted bribes to influence policy, money laundering, obstruction of justice and other criminal activity appear much more likely than they did even a month ago.  

In the end, I think it only 50-50 Donald Trump even completes his term, much less runs for re-election.  Even if Mueller did not spoil the Trump GOP Kool-Aid party, there appears to be a looming disasterous midterm election for Republicans which would flip control of the U.S. House to the Democrats and make 2019 a year of impeachment and other investigations of the Trump Presidency.  I could definitely see Trump choosing to leave in 2019 rather than deal with that.  Better to go out an electoral winner than face that and the distinct possibility of losing in 2020 when the Democrats undoubtedly field a much stronger candidate in a more favorable political climate.