Friday, March 25, 2016

April Contests in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania Loom Large for Republican Presidential Candidates

Next up for Republicans is the Wisconsin GOP primary which awards its 42 delegates to whichever candidate wins each of its 8 congressional district and statewide.
Presently Donald Trump is about 500 delegates short of the delegates he needs for a first ballot victory.  Another way of looking at it is Trump can only lose about 272 more delegates to fall below the necessary 1237 required for a first round win at this summer's GOP national convention to be held in Cleveland this Summer..  If Trump falls short, then he probably loses the nomination.  Second place Senator Ted Cruz's organization has actively worked behind the scenes to put his people in place as delegates regardless of the state's outcome.  As a result, those delegates, once unbound if there is a second round of voting at the convention, are likely to favor Cruz over Trump.

There has been limited polling done in Wisconsin.  However, Emerson College filled that gap releasing a poll on Wednesday with Cruz leading Trump 36% to 35% and Ohio Governor John Kasich running third at 19%. The poll also revealed that Kasich voters had a more favorable view of Cruz than Trump and, thus, his presence in the race, at least in Wisconsin, are a drag on Cruz's support.

The contrary may be happening in Pennsylvania, another key state coming up on April 26th.  Polling there shows Trump leading Kasich 33% to 30% while Cruz trails with 20%. That state is critical to Trump's quest for 1237 because it awards 71 delegates, including 3 for who wins each of its 18 congressional districts.  Those 54 Pennsylvania delegates representing the districts are unbound, even on the first round of voting.  Thus, even if Trump "wins" the delegates on election night, those delegates don't have to support him at the convention on the first ballot.   Yes, you heard that right.


leon dixon said...

"....Good Catholics can disagree about the Iraq War, and we did. But good Catholics cannot abandon the pro-life cause, and we did not. We criticized President Bush for shoving it to the back burner, a strategic decision which is clear to even the most ardent Bush supporter. That his decisions on the war led to the stunning defeats of 2006 and 2008, to the election of Obama and the adoption of ObamaCare, is now clear in hindsight. But even had his policies (which we opposed) led to peace and prosperity, all along shoving the life issues off the table, we would still condemn them for the crass opportunism they manifested, and for the cynical manipulation of the pro-life, pro-family movements that they represented -- because Bush 43 would never have been elected without the ardent support of those movements.

The point of the Rubble column entitled "Three Broken Legs" is simply this: Pro-lifers were betrayed during the Bush years and we should not allow ourselves ever again to ally ourselves with the Republican Party (or any party, for that matter: observe the disaster that has befallen the bishops for allying themselves with the Democrat Party for 100 years!).

Put not your faith in princes!" Which Republican principles are going to be on the record this time around?

leon dixon said...

Spengler is heavy duty intellectual....but Trump has Sessions and Palin. Though Palin is credited with getting Cruz elected in Texas.