Saturday, October 6, 2012

Post-Debate Polls Show Romney Cutting National Margin, Moving Ahead in Key Battleground States

Last Saturday, President Barack Obama's lead in the  Real Clear Politics Average of Polls peaked at 4.3%.  Yesterday it stood at 3.1%.  Today, with more post-debate polls being added to the mix, it dropped to 1.8%.

That is the national picture.  The only thing that counts in a presidential election is winning states.  State polls released today and yesterday, post-debate polls, show Republican Mitt Romney moving ahead in key states.  In Colorado, two polls show Romney ahead 4 and 3 points,  Romney is shown ahead by 3 and 2 points in Florida polls, and up Romney is up by 1 and 3 points in two Virginia polls.  A poll from Nevada has Romney up 1 point, while Ohio polls are split, one showing Romney up by one percent and one showing President Obama up by 1 point.

Here's an interesting note.  If Romney's recent surge in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada and Colorado hold up, he will still be 12 points down in the Electoral College. If he wins Iowa, which he's only narrowly behind in right now, then that state's six electoral votes would make the election a tie, 269-269.  But remember, many of the state's electors are free to change their vote as they see fit.  So one elector, promised a nice ambassadorship, might decide to throw the election to the other side.

1 comment:

Downtown Indy said...

Well, there *IS* an opening in Libya.