Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Romney Struggles in His Home State of Michigan; When Will the GOP Establishment Get the Message that Republicans Do Not Want Romney as Their Nominee?

Mitt Romney grew up in Michigan. During the 1960s, Romney's father, George, was a popular governor of the State.  Romney was expected to easily win the Michigan primary set for Tuesday 28th.  After all, Romney easily won the state in 2008.
Mitt Romney

Most recent polls though show Rick Santorum leading Romney in the Michigan.  The margin has narrowed the last few days.  Two polls have Santorum leading by 4 points, while one shows them tied and one has Romney with a 2 point lead.

Arizona's primary is the same day.   Romney was supposed to win Arizona, which has a sizable Mormon population, by double digits.  But even polls there show the margin tightening, including a recent one showing Romney leading Santorum by just 3 points.

No one expects Santorum to carry Arizona as Romney has led in virtually every poll in the state  But a slew of Michigan polls from Groundhog Day forward show Santorum with a decent lead in the state, which polls have raised expectations for the former Pennsylvania Senator. 

Meanwhile national polls show Santorum opening up a lead nationally.  The last six national polls have showed Santorum ahead of Romney, the last two reflecting a double digit lead.

Several of the stories on RealClearPolitics.com suggest the Republican establishment figures who have so fervently pushed Romney on the party's electorate are having second thoughts and a loss in Michigan would cause them to actively recruit another candidate.  It doesn't help that Romney is no longer doing well in head-to-head matchups with President Obama.  The Romney "electability" argument now seems nothing more than a mirage.  A brokered convention wouldn't necessarily be a horrible thing, especially if the Republicans end up with a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney.

My guess is that Romney will dump so much money into Michigan, and trash Santorum so badly with his Super PAC, that the ex-Massachusetts Governor will win the State.  But at what price will that victory come?  Republicans don't like Mitt Romney and don't want him as their nominee. Romney winning the Michigan Primary by tearing down his fellow Republican, won't play well with many GOP voters.

When will the GOP establishment get the message that Republicans don't want Mitt Romney as their nominee?


Ben said...

No they want someone who thinks that pre-natal care is a Democrat conspiracy. Thats the kind of nut I want running my country

Paul K. Ogden said...

Ben, as opposed to someone (Obama) who thinks the federal govenrment should dictate to religious groups what an acceptable religious view is? So much for religious freedom.

patriot paul said...

Romney just can't seal the deal. The tea party at large is spread out the length of the field. I do remember Romney supporters tagging along with the Tea Party Express tour stops and set up their own booth, trying to endear themselves to tea partiers.
From what I've seen recently, conservatives seem to be gravitating toward Santorum because he is a marked contrast to Obama and sells himself better than Romney. I've seen Santorum actually grow more into what I'm looking for but I want to hear more. No one seals the deal for me yet.