Most recent polls though show Rick Santorum leading Romney in the Michigan. The margin has narrowed the last few days. Two polls have Santorum leading by 4 points, while one shows them tied and one has Romney with a 2 point lead.
Arizona's primary is the same day. Romney was supposed to win Arizona, which has a sizable Mormon population, by double digits. But even polls there show the margin tightening, including a recent one showing Romney leading Santorum by just 3 points.
No one expects Santorum to carry Arizona as Romney has led in virtually every poll in the state But a slew of Michigan polls from Groundhog Day forward show Santorum with a decent lead in the state, which polls have raised expectations for the former Pennsylvania Senator.
Meanwhile national polls show Santorum opening up a lead nationally. The last six national polls have showed Santorum ahead of Romney, the last two reflecting a double digit lead.
Several of the stories on RealClearPolitics.com suggest the Republican establishment figures who have so fervently pushed Romney on the party's electorate are having second thoughts and a loss in Michigan would cause them to actively recruit another candidate. It doesn't help that Romney is no longer doing well in head-to-head matchups with President Obama. The Romney "electability" argument now seems nothing more than a mirage. A brokered convention wouldn't necessarily be a horrible thing, especially if the Republicans end up with a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney.
My guess is that Romney will dump so much money into Michigan, and trash Santorum so badly with his Super PAC, that the ex-Massachusetts Governor will win the State. But at what price will that victory come? Republicans don't like Mitt Romney and don't want him as their nominee. Romney winning the Michigan Primary by tearing down his fellow Republican, won't play well with many GOP voters.
When will the GOP establishment get the message that Republicans don't want Mitt Romney as their nominee?