Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Crystal Ball Reveals Election Results

We are two weeks out. Time for some election predictions.

To simply things, I'll pick the race and the R-D spread in the election result. Let's start off locally:

Prosecutor: (D) Curry over (R) Massa by 3 pts.
Note: If Curry starts tying Massa to Brizzi more or he gets tied to another scandal, then I can see the spread widening.

Sheriff: (D) John Layton over (R) Dennis Fishburn by 14 points.
Note: Layton leads the Democratic county ticket.

Other County-wide Races: (D) County Candidates over the (R) County Candidates by 11 pts.


Next up the state-wide races:

Secretary of State: (R) Charlie White over (D) Vop Osili by 4 pts.
Note: Having survived the political fallout over a possible election law violation, the bigger problem will prove to be running the office while a cloud hangs over his head.

Other State Wide Races: (R) State Candidates over the (D) State Candidates by 14 pts.


Moving on to the federal offices:

U.S. Senate: (R) Coats over (D) Ellsworth by 12 points

U.S. House (2nd District): (D) Joe Donnelly over (R) Jackie Walorski by 6 pts.

U.S. House (7th District): (D) Andre Carson over (R) Marvin Scott by 20 pts.

U.S. House (8th District): (R) Larry Buschon over (D) Trent Van Haaften by 18 pts.

U.S. House (9th District): (R) Todd Young over (D) Baron Hill by 10 pts.



Indiana House: Republicans pick up six seats for a majority of 54-46
Indiana Senate: No pick up.

U.S. House: Republicans pick up 50 seats for a majority.
U.S. Senate: Republicans pick up 8 seats and are left in the minority 51-49.

There are the results. Bet the farm.


Indy Student said...

Why do you put Carson's lead over Scott so high? While the race hasn't been competitive in several years, non-POTUS years usually have less of a lead than during POTUS years.

Overall I agree, though I think Coats could gain a few more points over Ellsworth with a big media buy.

Paul K. Ogden said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Paul K. Ogden said...

I have Carson's win over Scott at 20 points...that's just 60-40. The baseline county races in 2008 were 20 points. The good Republican precincts in the Marion County suburbs are not included in the 7th are not higher, so the numbers should be higher than 20 points. Julia Carson always ran behind her Democratic base. Actually Andre is proving to be a better voter getter..he's run ahead of the Democratic base in his races. Then you factor in the Scott miscues but also factor in the fact it's likely to be a good Republican year. Adding and subtracting those factors, I could see him getting to 40%.

As far as Coats goes, I think his numbers have topped out. Ellsworth's negative ads will probably draw Coats down as the electon draws near. Not nearly enough though for Coats to win though.

Paul K. Ogden said...

In the last sentence in the last comment, I meant not nearly enough for Ellsworth to win.


I was planning to vote for Massa until I read about the sleazy campaign contributions he accepts.

Now, I'm moving my vote to Curry. This is exactly why I don't vote early.

I hope that every conservative who has figured out that neither Ellsworth or Coats are conservatives will vote for Rebecca Sink Burris.

Cato said...

It's going to be all L's and D's for me.

The Republicans are no longer the lesser of two evils, and they can't be returned to power after giving us the disaster that existed in January, 2009.

The Republicans need to be kept from power until they adopt a pro-freedom, limited-government platform. Since few Republicans want to end the Drug War, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, close our foreign military bases, return to sound money and stay out of people's lives, I don't see any looming rehabilitation for that party.


Cato...myself and a whole lot of other activists worked day and night for months to assure Ballard's victory and the Republican majority on the city council.

They turned out to be no different than Peterson and the democrat controlled council.

On a national level, you've got glenn beck, sarah palin, and the rest of the NEOCONS beating the drums for war every day.

I'm completely fed up with the Republican Party as much as I am the democrat party.


Wilson46201 said...

but wasn't Mayor Ballard the first great victory for the Tea Party crowd?


Yep, Wilson Ballard was the first victory and I don't see that we're really any better off.

Don't you feel the same about Obama?