Monday, July 27, 2009

Congressional Predictions 2010

Blue Indiana gleefully reports the political analysis of CQ Quarterly that the only Democratic district in the state that could be competitive is the 9th District currently held by Baron Hill. He also boasts that CQ Quarterly expects the Democrats to add to their majority in the House.

With 257 of the 435 U.S. House seats, Democrats are strongly favored to retain their majority in the 2010 elections -- though history points to party losses in the first midterm election of President Obama.

Most of the 435 congressional districts have such well-entrenched incumbents that the 2010 House races there will be landslides. But CQ Politics has preliminarily identified 100 districts, 59 of which are held by Democrats, where the contests should be highly or mildly competitive. Of these, CQ Politics rates three districts, all now held by Republicans, as leaning toward takeover by the challenging party: Louisiana 2, Pennsylvania 6 and Illinois 10.

See our full chart of all House Races by rating. Learn more about our race rating system.
This CQ Quarterly report is such nonsense. The 2010 election is 16 months away. That is an eternity in politics. History tells us that the first mid-term election of a newly-elected President has almost always produced congressional losses, sometimes large, for the President's party. Do I believe analysis 16 month out or the lengthy political history that contradicts it? The smart money is on history, which usually repeats itself.

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