Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Indiana 2022 Election Prediction: Senator Young Will Cruise to Re-Election While Democrats May Win the Secretary of State's Race

No, I'm not believing a Indy Politics/ARW Strategies poll showing Indiana Senator Todd Young up by just two points on his Democratic rival Tom McDermott.  Young has skillfully avoided going too MAGA (unlike his colleague Senator Mike Braun) and is, thus, unlikely to lose enough base support to give McDermott a chance to win.  I can't say the same for the Republican Secretary of State candidate Diego Morales who the poll suggests is running four points behind his Democratic opponent, Destiny Scott Wells. Morales has a number problems as a candidate.  Besides being an election denier, he had a spotty record

Senator Todd Young (R-IN)
 as a state employee and was caught exaggerating his military service.  I think there will be plenty of Republicans voting for the Libertarian Jeff Mauer or for Wells.  Many Republicans won't vote at all in that race.

I also anticipate the Republicans will lose a few seats in the Indiana General Assembly in November.  Frankly, the Indiana GOP had pretty much maxed out their numbers and the recent redrawing of districts after the 2020 census was aimed at shoring up incumbents districts, not expanding the GOP numbers.  

As I've documented on these pages before the GOP base in the state has been weakening the last several election cycles, a trend that has accelerated during the Trump years.  The population centers of the former GOP bastion Hamilton County - Fishers, Carmel and Westfield - are rapidly becoming Democratic. What has helped offset the GOP downturn in the Indianapolis suburbs has been increased rural turnout that heavily favors Republicans.  I don't anticipate that will continue forever.  If it doesn't happen in 2022, Republicans may lose more legislative races than a "few."

But one thing is clear when it comes to Indiana politics - Democrats do a lot better in the higher turnout, presidential election years.  I expect, assuming the party can find moderate candidates, the Democrats will have real chances to win the the Governorship and defeat Senator Braun in 2024.

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