Sunday, January 2, 2022

OOPs 2022 Political Predictions

OOP's predictions for 2022.  Bet the farm.
  • Political Violence:  Expect 2022 to be the worst year of political violence ever.  Several politicians will be targeted by terrorists as well as members of the media.  Some will be killed.  While most of the violence will be by right wing extremists, look for left wing violence to increase.

  • Republicans Take Control of the U.S. House:  No brainer that House Republicans regain a majority in 2022. The issue is how much the gain will be.  I say 15-20 seats.  On Election Day, the projections will be as many as 30 but the Republicans will miss that mark but still comfortably win enough seats to take control.

  • Democrats Win Outright Majority in the U.S. Senate:  The seats that are up favor the Democrats.  But that should be more than offset by what is likely to be a good Republican year. The trouble for the GOP is candidate recruitment.   I think, by going full MAGA to win primaries, Republican lose in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, giving the Democrats a very narrow margin in the Senate.

  • Both Biden and Trump will be hospitalized for rather serious procedures during 2022, raising doubts about whether they will be candidates in 2024.  Of course, the Trump camp will try to keep his medical procedure a secret, but word will leak out.

  • The January 6th Select Committee will issue a report detailing the efforts of several Republican members of Congress and President Trump to overturn the 2020 election.  

  • In light of its findings, the January 6th Select Committee will make a criminal referral of Donald Trump and several members of Congress.  

  • Attorney General Merrick Garland though will decline to prosecute Trump or any members of Congress: Thanks in part to the decision not to prosecute, Merrick Garland will become the most unpopular member of the Biden cabinet by years end up and may end up resigning before 2023.

  • Covid-19 will finally flame out during the Summer of 2022.

  • Roe v. Wade will be overturned...kind of:   Expect the Court in the Dobbs case to modify Roe to allow states to regulate and even ban abortions during the second trimester but prohibit states from banning first trimester abortions.  Four justices will write a concurring opinion wishing to go further and turn the issue completely over to states.

  • Texas abortion law will be held unconstitutional:  At the same time the Court hands down Dobbs, it will hand down another decision finding the Texas abortion law to be unconstitutional.  The vote will be at least 7-2, though some of the conservative justices will focus on the vigilante provision of the law.  

  • Abortion will not prove to be a factor in midterms:  Although Democrats will try to capitalize on the abortion issue, the Court's decision essentially modifying Roe, rather than overturning it, will neuter that effort.

  • Inflation will be the No. 1 issue in the 2022 midterms.

  • Rokita and Banks Announce Candidacy for Indiana Governor:  After the November 2022 midterms, Secretary of State Todd Rokita and Hoosier Congressman Jim Banks will announce they are running for the GOP nomination for Indiana Governor.   Both candidates make a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to kiss the Orange God King's ring.  Democrats will see an opening to win the Governor's Office but finish the year still scrambling to find a high-profile Democrat to run.

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