There is something in polling called the generic ballot. Voters are asked if they support a Republican or Democrat for Congress. No name is attached to the poll question. The answer pollsters get has for decades closely reflected the national partisan vote for Congress. Here is the final generic poll average v. election result for the last 6 presidential election years:
Year Final Generic Ballot Margin House Popular Vote Margin Error
1996 D+3 Even 3
2000 D+1 Even 1
2004 Even R+3 3
2008 D+9 D+11 2
2012 Even D+1 2
2016 D+1 R+1 2
Now let's look at 2020:
2020 D+7.3 D+1 6.3
- The two Georgia Republican Senators, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, are trying to get the Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, to resign. Why? It appears they want Raffensperger ousted because he did not put his finger on the scale in Georgia so Trump would win the state. Maybe Loeffler and Perdue should worry more about their January 5th run-off against, respectively, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff?
- Speaking of that run-off, the thought is the election will be low turnout and that will favor Republicans. While I don't think any of the four candidates are strong candidates, I'm not convinced that Republicans will swamp Democrats in turnout in the Peach State. Trump won't be on the ballot and I'm not convinced that GOP leaning voters will go to the polls in huge numbers to keep Mitch McConnell in power. Likewise, I'm not convinced that the need to have a check on Joe Biden by electing a Republican Senate is a concept that more than a few voters consider when casting a ballot. Not sure who I'm going to predict, but I expect the race(s) will be closer than the easy GOP win(s) pundits currently are predicting.
- Donald Trump, Jr. and his girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, are apparently working behind the scenes to take control over the Republican National Committee. They want to oust current RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, who was seen as ineffective in getting Trump re-elected. McDaniel sold her soul to Trump and got nothing in return for her loyalty. Who could have seen that happening?
- One name I heard to replace McDaniel is Corey Lewandowski. I kid you not. Corey is not competent to run a 7/11. So let's make him the operational head of the GOP!
- On a recent political podcast, a panel of seasoned political experts - mostly Republican types who had worked in numerous campaigns - were asked what percentage of the GOP electorate would believe Trump's narrative that the election was stolen through fraud. The consensus was that after a month of peddling the "stolen election" line, 20% to 30% of Republicans would come to believe it was true. LOL. I knew it was not going to take a month and I expected the number to be about 70%. It did not take 24 hours for me to be proven right.
- I've heard some analysts say that if Trump doesn't bow out gracefully, it could cost him to lose support. Really? Do I have to list all the things Trump has done over the last four years for which he didn't lose support? Pretty sure Trump can overcome being labeled, correctly, as a sore loser. Sadly, the Trump cult lives on.
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