As Election Day Approaches, I Have Georgia (Predictions) on My Mind

Georgia, Georgia 

The whole day through 

Just an old sweet song 

Keeps Georgia on my mind (Georgia on my mind) 

I said Georgia 

Georgia 

A song of you 

Comes as sweet and clear 

As moonlight through the pines 

Other arms reach out to me 

Other eyes smile tenderly 

Still in peaceful dreams I see 

The road leads back to you 

I said Georgia 

Ooh Georgia, no peace I find 

Just an old sweet song 

Keeps Georgia on my mind (Georgia on my mind) 

Other arms reach out to me 

Other eyes smile tenderly 

Still in peaceful dreams I see 

The road leads back to you 

Whoa, Georgia 

Georgia 

No peace, no peace I find 

Just this old, sweet song 

Keeps Georgia on my mind 

I said just an old sweet song 

Keeps Georgia on my mind 

***

Hoagy Carmichael and Stuart Gorrell wrote Georgia on My Mind in 1930.  Republican Herbert Hoover was in the White House and, during the 1928 election, Republicans had taken control of both the U.S. House and Senate.  But while the nation had turned to the Republican Party in the prosperous years preceding the Great Depression, Georgia had its feet firmly planted in its post-Reconstruction, Jim Crow past.  In 1930, all 12 Georgia congressional seats were held by Democrats. The two U.S. Senators from Georgia, John Cohen and Walter George, were Democrats as well.  Democrats also controlled both houses of the Georgia legislature, a domination which continued until 2002. 

No Georgia Democrat has been elected statewide since 2000.  No Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since 1992 when fellow southerner Bill Clinton ran.

In 2020, the situation is far different.  Georgia has a Republican Governor, both U.S. Senators are Republican, and Republicans have 9 of 14 congressional districts.  The GOP also dominates both houses of the state legislature.

But come Tuesday, get ready for things to change in Georgia.  The pendulum is about to swing back to the Democrats.

Georgia is dominated by Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs. While those suburbs have given Republicans the edge, in the era of Trump, Atlanta suburbanites are breaking away big time from the GOP.  While rural Georgia remains heavily Republican, there are probably not enough votes there for Trump to win the state when you consider the soft support for the GOP in the Atlanta suburbs.  Trump's chances in the state are also dragged down the by the fact the GOP Senators seeking election to the two Senate seats up next Tuesday are horrific in their own right.  There will be no reverse coattails for Trump from those GOP Senate candidates. 

I expect that when the counting in Georgia is done (which could take a few days since Georgia does not count its mail-in votes early), Democrat Joe Biden is going to win that state's 16 electoral votes.

Back to those two Senate seats.  The election in Georgia features a regular election and a special election.  Unfortunately for the Georgia GOP, both sets of Republican candidate seem clueless to the state's changing partisan proclivities.

GENERAL ELECTION:  At the start of 2020, Republican Senator Perdue was seen as a certain bet for re-election.  Turns out Perdue, who had won his seat originally in a a good Republican year, is a terrible candidate.  During a recent debate, Perdue's opponent, Jon Ossoff, ripped Perdue for rushing out to buy PPE manufacturer stocks when he was first briefed about the Covid-19 pandemic.  Perdue's campaign also ran an ad which altered the nose of Ossoff to make it bigger and, presumably, to make his Democratic opponent look more Jewish.  On the campaign trail, Perdue has repeatedly and intentionally mispronounced the first name of Kamala Harris, the first black Vice Presidential nominee of a major party.  So stupid.  The one thing Perdue has going for him is that the GOP candidates in the special election races are even worse so he looks good by comparison.  

In Georgia, if a candidate does not get a majority of the vote, the race goes to a run-off.  Because of the presence of third party candidates, the Perdue-Ossoff race may go to a run-off to be held on January 5th.  While that was originally seen as benefitting Perdue, I don't think it will be enough.  I think Ossoff wins that seat.

Georgia Senator Loeffler appearing with Congressional Candidate
Marjorie Taylor Greene (Photo from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

SPECIAL ELECTION:  Because of health reasons, Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson, had to resign his seat early.  Concerned about the increasing Democratic trends in the suburbs, Republican Governor Brian Kemp appointed Georgia businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to the seat believing she would appeal to the more moderate Atlanta suburbanites who have been increasingly pulling the Democratic lever.  But Republican congressman Doug Collins, a stalwart defender of President Trump during impeachment, also wanted the seat and decided to run in the special election, the first stage of which lumps together  both Republican and Democratic candidates in a "jungle primary." Several Democrats also filed to run, but one has risen to the top, Raphael Warnock, the pastor of the historic First Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.  

Democrats were originally concerned that Loeffler and Collins might finish first and second, thus closing the Democrats out of the January 5th run-off general election.  But the last several months Loeffler and Collins have been attacking each other in an effort to prove themselves the most Trumpiest.  Loeffler has gone so far as to welcome the endorsement of Qanon conspiracy supporter and congressional candidate, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has also posted racist and xenophobic videos on social media.  Loeffler even told a reporter that she had never heard of the Access Hollywood tape on which Trump bragged about grabbing women's private parts.  As a result of the battle between Loeffler and Collins, both Republicans have sunk in the polls while Warnock has risen to the lead.  Warnock, however, is unlikely to get to the 50% threshold needed to avoid the run-off.

While the special election was seen to be the GOP's ace in the hole, it now the second place finisher, Loeffler or Collins, is going to be so damaged by the time they leave the "jungle" that the GOP nominee won't be able to defeat Warnock.  I give the edge to Warnock to win that race.

By the way, Georgia on My Mind was made famous, not by Hoagy Carmichael, but Ray Charles.  See his version below:

 

 OOP'S SHORT TAKES:

• On Thursday, President Trump's eldest son, Don, Jr., appeared on Fox News' the Ingraham Angle and said that medical experts who was saying there would be a surge in Covid-19 cases are "morons" and that the number of deaths due to the virus has declined to "almost nothing."  On that day, the number of infections hit a record 90,000+ and more than 1,000 Americans died from the virus.
• On a related note, I keep going back and forth on speculating who is the dumbest of the adult Trump children.  I think Don, Jr. is the winner, but Eric and Ivanka are definitely in the running.  Even Tiffany Trump, who has a different mother than the others, has recently proven she should not be counted out.  You would think the Trump children would want to marry smarter spouses to improve the Trump gene pool, but they do not seem to be doing that.  Exhibit A is Jared Kushner, who may be even more dumb than Don, Jr. 
• Good to see my fellow Catholics wake up to what a disaster Trump is.
• Trump is now making the absurd claim that doctors are profiting off of reporting, falsely, that patients are dying from Covid-19 as opposed to other diseases.  Of course, until Trump, the GOP did very well with medical doctors.  Trump is on his way to alienating yet another natural GOP constituency.
• "Forced monkey labor?"  So now we have to worry about primates taking our jobs?