Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Keeping an Eye on Alaska; Update on Today's State Polls

As of writing this, the website FiveThirtyEight has posted 18 polls for today.  Sixteen of them focus on contests within the state, either for President or U.S. Senate.  When the best polling news for Republicans is a poll out of Arizona showing the President losing Arizona (a state he won in 2016 by 3.5 points), it is a terrible polling day for the GOP.  Let's take a look at the states poll:

Alaska:  This is a state to keep an eye on.  I know it has voted for a Democrat presidential candidate
Rep. Don Young (R-AK)
since 1964, but this could be the year it swings to the Democrats.   A poll shows the sole Alaskan member of Congress Republican Don Young, who has represented Alaska since 1973 (not a typo) trailing a Democratic challenger by a point.    Alaskans like Republicans, but they prefer Republicans who have an independent streak.  The 86-year-old Rep. Young, a strong supporter of Trump, does not fit that bill.  Neither does Alaskan Senator Dan Sullivan who also has been a close ally of the President.  Keep an eye on Sullivan's re-election bid in that state.  It could get close.

Arizona:  I've already mentioned the presidential contest, but the Senate race there was polled as well.   Democrat Mark Kelly is ahead of  incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally by 9 points.  Well, at least it isn't double figures like most recent polls.

Florida:  Shocker.   A poll of likely voters has Trump losing Florida by 11 points.  Trump won by the state by 1.2% in 2016.

Georgia:  Trump is running behind in Georgia by 2 points.  He won Georgia in five points in 2016.  Also, it looks like Trump ally David Perdue is in trouble in the Peach State.  He trails newly annoited Democratic nominee John Ossoff by a point in today's poll.  Of the two Georgia Senate seats up in 2020, Perdue's was considered the safest. 

Michigan:  Two polls of likely voters in Michigan were released today.  One has Trump losing the state by 13 points, the other by 16.  Trump squeaked out a win in Michigan in 2016, one of the key Midwestern states (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin being the other two) that he flipped to win the election.  As I've been saying, Michigan is a lost cause.  Trump needs to replace it with another state, possibly Minnesota. 

Two polls has incumbent Senator Gary Peters winning re-election by 6 and 12 points.  Republican challenger John James was considered the best bet for a Republican pick-up in the Senate outside of Alabama.  James though has the unfortunate luck of running in the two bad election cycles for Michigan Republicans, 2018 and 2020.

Finally, two Michigan polls show the Democratic challenger Hillary Scholten in a statistical dead heat (even and +1) against two possible Republican nominees in  Michigan District 3.  That is Republican turned independent Justin Amash's district.  Amash who voted for Trump's impeachment in the House, was going to be targeted in the GOP primary for not being worshipful enough of Trump.  But Amash might well end up being replaced by a Democrat who certainly won't be conservative or pro-Trump.

New Mexico:  Early on, New Mexico was cited as a top pickup opportunity for the Trump campaign.  Of course, the suggestion that Trump  had a chance to win New Mexico is insane.   A poll today shows Biden with a 14 point lead and Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Lujan winning the open Senate seat in the state by 12 points.

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