Saturday, June 13, 2020

Another Day, Another Bad Joni Ernst Poll

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa)
Until a few weeks ago, the Republican Party did not anticipate having to spend money in Iowa to ensure the re-election of incumbent Senator Joni Ernst.  It was assumed Ernst was safe in Iowa.  To make sure of that, Ernst thought it best to lash herself to President Donald Trump.  Turns out that was a bad move.  It seems, Iowans do not appreciate their senators giving up their political independence to be a rubber stamp for the President.

Trump seems to do best in states which are overwhelmingly rural and white.  So it is shocking that Trump is not more popular in the Hawkeye State which is overwhelmingly rural and white..  The most recent poll only shows Trump up 2 points in Iowa.

Saturday evening, the Des Moines Register released a poll (conducted by the A+ rated pollster Selzer & Company), showing Democrat challenger Theresa Greenfield leading Ernst 46-43.  This is consistent with two other June Iowa polls which has Greenfield leading 2 to 3 points.   While the poll makes the race look like a toss-up, it may not be the toss-up the numbers seem to suggest.  When you have an incumbent, the undecided vote 80% of the time breaks for the challenger, by margins that average about 2-1.  If that happens here, Greenfield wins the November contest 53-47.

The Democrats have a lot of targets to win a majority in the Senate.  Don't bet against them.

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