Sunday, November 4, 2018

Will the Mid-Term Results Finally Cause Republicans to Wake Up to Trump's Electoral Weakness?

To hear President Trump and his his followers tell the story of the 2016 election, Trump proved a champion vote-getter and political messenger, a one-of-a-kind politician whose coattails propelled Republican candidates up and down the ballot to victory.  Trump won his soaring victory with the support of numerous Democrats crossing over to vote Republican for the first time.    Trump is as great a politician as great as Ronald Reagan, they declare, and some suggest even better.  
Pres. Ronald Reagan

Shockingly, the supposedly anti-Trump mainstream media has simply accepted this narrative as true. But the 2016 election results reflect a far different story.

In 2016, 241 Republicans won seats in the United States house. In how many of those districts did Trump run better than the GOP candidates?  24.  In other words, in over 90% of congressional districts, the winning Republican congressional candidates was more popular than Donald Trump. 

Hillary Clinton was, by far, the most unpopular candidate the Democrats ever nominated.  Yet Trump managed to lose the popular vote to her by over 3 million votes.  While Trump won the Electoral College, if just 39,000 votes in three states were switched we'd be talking about President Hillary Clinton facing her first mid-term election.

When Reagan won his landslide victories in 1980 and 1984, he did far better than Donald Trump in running ahead of winning GOP congressional districts..  In 1980, in a three way presidential race (John Anderson ran as an independent and garnered 6.6% of the popular vote), he led 38 of the winning GOP candidates at the polls.  In 1984, Reagan ran ahead of 59 GOP congressional candidates who won their district.

Trump was not a popular Republican on Election Day 2016 and he is even more unpopular today, entering his first mid-term with the lowest favorability rating of any President at this point.  Trump did not lead Republicans to victory in 2016.  He road on the coattails of the popularity of Republicanism and, even more so, the unpopularity of the liberalism of the Democratic Party.  For more popular GOP candidates to tie themselves to an unpopular President spouting racism and hatred, someone deeply hurting the Republican brand with millennials, educated voters and non-whites, is incredibly foolish.


Leon Dixon said...

How do you best like the Crow you will be eating come Wednesday morning? At least you did not cite any phony polls this time. As it happens, in the 2016 era there were a lot of butt hurt include you. Like the Mourdock matter, great numbers of these RINO sorts did not support Trump (or Mourdock) with any intensity preferring to set on their couches and lick their wounds. As I recall, in Indiana Trump had Rex Early and Jeff Cardwell. All of the other long noses were for LOSERS. Your vaunted version of Indiana Republicans ought not include LOSERS.....

Grace Girl said...

Interesting perspective Paul.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Unlike Trump Murdock is a conservative, intelligent and competent. Trump is none of those things. If you want liberal socialist agenda to win keep supporting Trump because he is a gift to the Democrat Party. Me, I prefer my Presidents to be honest, intelligent, competent and have integrity. And I prefer Presidents who don't constantly attack American values like Trump does. Trump is no better than Hanoi Jane Fonda, in fact he is worse.

True Republican said...

Jeff Cardwell is hardly a conservative.