It was a reform supported by then Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. However, like most election reforms, there have been unintended consequences. One of those "unintended consequences" is that in a multi-candidate field, the primary vote could be so splintered that candidates from one of the
|Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Russia)|
On election night 2018, the Democratic takeover of the House, if it happens, may come down to late-reporting California. There are a number of takeover targets in California in which Republican congressional candidates but are vulnerable due to Trump's unpopularity in their district But the jungle primary presented the very real possibility that the Democratic primary vote would be so splintered that the GOP candidates would take the top two positions, leaving the Democratic opponent closed out of a very winnable general election race.
A review of Tuesday nights election results reveals that with the exception of one congressional contest, California Democratic candidates avoided being shut out of the general election. Here are the election results in a few of the most prominent such districts:
Denham (R) 24,640 37.7%
Harder (D) 10,244 15.7%'
Howze (R) 9,394 14.4%
Kim (R) 18,851 22.0%
Cisneros (D) 16,623 19.4%
Liberatore (R) 11,990 14.0%
Rohrbacher (R) 33,198 30.4%
Keirstead (D) 18,827 17.2%
Rouda (D) 18,782 17.2%
Baugh (R) 17,601 16.1%
Hunter (R) 43,233 48.7%
Campa-Najjar (D) 14,445 16.3%
Wells (R) 11,626 13.1%
A notable exception is California 8, a district based in San Bernandino County that is currently represented by Rep. Paul Cook, a Republican. That district though was always a long-shot for Democrats to win.
Cook (R) 29,403 41.5%
Donnelly (R) 16,024 22.6%
Doyle (D) 15,264 21.4%
By any objective measure, the Democrats should be happy with the California election results which set up the party to win several California congressional districts in the Fall. But over at
Equally absurd is one Fox analyst who extrapolated the party primary vote in key races to what is likely to happen in the general election. As any political analyst knows, the voters who go to the polls in a low-turnout primary do not equate, in any way, those who vote in a general election. I know that from personal experience. As an Indiana house candidate for a district on the northwest side of Indianapolis, I won the GOP primary in 2000. My primary vote and that of my GOP rival totaled more than twice the Democratic vote in the district. So did I win the general election, much less 2-1? Nope, I received about 40% (I always round up) of the vote that Fall. Voters in my district did not like George W. Bush and Democratic-leaning voters turned out heavily to vote against him.
There was certainly nothing in Tuesday's California election results that indicates the possibility of a blue wave this fall has diminished.