Thursday, December 14, 2017
Some Republicans Finally See Political Cliff in Alabama Results
Some Republicans, myself included, warned about the disaster that would await the GOP if the party nominated Donald Trump, a man we said was completely unfit to be elected President. And while we naysayers have been proven spectacularly right about Trump's ignorance and lack of basic competence for the position he holds, it is the President's foul and intemperate personality which has turned out to be the the most damaging to the GOP brand. Trump is turning my Republican Party into the party of assholes and the public doesn't like to vote for assholes. The number of people identifying Republicans has dropped 5% since Trump's inauguration. But that number is not nearly as bad as some of those that came out of the Alabama Senate special election won by Democrat Doug Jones over Republican Roy Moore, a candidate who embodies Trumpism and who was enthusiastically supported by the President.
Chris Cizilla of CNN breaks down points to eight different sets of stats from the Republican's loss in heavily GOP Alabama, numbers that should trouble any Republican concerned about the future of the Party. They are summarized as follows.
1. Moore won only among older voters
--Moore won voters over 65 by 19%. Among voters 18-64 he lost by 8%. Those older voters which support Trump/Moore style politicians are dying off and being replaced by younger voters who don't like the Trump brand of politics.
2. Women with children voted by Jones.
--Women with children vote for Jones 65-32, while Jones won women without children by a closer 55-45 margin. In the past, it is women without children that the GOP has struggled with while the party pretty much breaks even with married children.
3. Moderates voted for Jones
--Self-identified moderates voted for Jones 74-25. This is the same state that has shown up in Trump's post-election poll numbers. The independents that propelled him over the top seem to have long ago jumped off the Trump train.
4. Trump's approval rate in Alabama plummeted
--Trump won Alabama by 28 points. But among Tuesday's voters, Trump's approval rate was 48% while his disapproval rate was 48%. Moore wasn't just unpopular among Alabama's special election voters, so too was the President.
5,. More Alabama voters said Jones shared their values than Moore
--While everyone expected that Moore would win with Alabama "values voters," Jones won them 48-46.
6. Alabama Voters View the Democrats more favorably than the Republican Party
--in the last several election cycles, including 2016, Alabama has been one of the most Republican states in the country. Yet on Tuesday those Alabama voters told pollsters they approved of the Democratic Party more than the GOP by 47-43.
7. Republicans strength is increasingly confined to rural areas.
--In cities of 50,000 or more, Jones won by an outstanding 71%. Traditionally, Republicans made back up ground in highly populated suburbs. But Moore only beat Jones 51-47 in Alabama suburbs. Moore did win the rural areas of Alabama 62-36, but being rural those areas have much less vote.
8. Black Voters Are Turning Out
--In 2012, 28% of the voters in Alabama were black. That was a record high, not surprisingly since the first African-American President was running for re-election. Yet that record was broken on Tuesday when black voters made up 29% of the Alabama electorate. That so many African-Americans would turn out for a special election is astonishing. Oh, and they voted 96-4 for Jones.
Many Republicans, including me, have warned about the political cliff the Trump train is heading toward. You'd have to be blind not to see that cliff in the Alabama election results.