Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Polls Show Trump, Republicans Facing Electoral Disaster in November
Polls released in the last couple weeks show the presidential race turning into a presidential route. Trump has fallen behind, in many cases far behind, in several key states. As I predicted, the number of battleground states has increased not because Trump is putting blue states into play, but because his unpopularity and (correctly) perceived unfitness for office is giving the Democrat Hillary Clinton the chance to win traditionally red states.
Let's look at Hillary Clinton's lead as reflected in the Real Clear Politics average of polls in those states: Pennsylvania 9.2, Michigan 6.6, Ohio 2.6, Florida 3.6, Iowa .4, North Carolina 2.0, Wisconsin, 9.4, Virginia 10.0, New Hampshire 8.2, Georgia .3 Colorado 11, Nevada 2.3
In only two of the battleground states is Trump above water: Missouri 5.3 and Arizona .3. I think once newer polling in Missouri comes in, it will show Trump's margin in that state decreasing.
Today a survey by Public Policy Polling shows Trump with only a 6 point lead in Texas. I fully expect, despite the presence of Indiana Governor Mike Pence on the ballot, that Indiana will be in play come November.
I have been tracking statewide polling for months to see how Trump is faring against Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's performance in 2012. Trump is beating Romney's numbers in 14 states, while Trump's polling numbers lags behind Romney's in 24 states.
I still harbor doubt that Trump will want his legacy to be that of running an incompetent campaign that leads to a landslide loss. I think there is a significant chance - today I will put it at 35% - that Trump drops out of the race. Departing the race would allow him to avoid becoming one of the biggest political LOSERS in American history, while claiming that he would have done better than his successor. In walking away, Trump would likely blame the media and talk about how "Crooked Hillary" and turncoat Republicans were conspiring to rig the election against him. Don't expect Trump to offer any proof. Just accusations. That's the Trump way.
Here is the thing though. Any replacement candidate fielded by Republicans (assuming they can navigate state ballot access laws to replace Trump on the ballot) immediately becomes competitive with extraordinarily unpopular Hillary Clinton.