Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Polls Show Clinton's Lead Over Trump Expanding to Double Digits (w/Update)

A new poll released yesterday by Bloomberg News shows Hillary Clinton opening up a 12 point lead over Donald Trump in a three way match-up that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson.  Clinton polled at 49%, while Trump was supported by 37% of the respondents, and Johnson, a former Republican Governor of New Mexico, scored 9% support.

The Bloomberg poll is consistent with the Reuters/IPSOS daily tracking poll which until recent days showed Clinton with about a 10.5 point lead over Trump.  With the terror attack in Orlando, Trump has picked up a couple points on Clinton, but still trails by 8.5 points.  Of course, tracking polls are more about identifying movement in campaigns, not accurately predicting election results.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

One of the most interesting part of the Bloomberg survey was when the pollster asked questions about the various negative issues plaguing the two campaigns.  While people were troubled by the several Clinton issues, more people were concerned about  Trump's.  Below is a summary of those issues and the percent of likely voters who said the issue "bothers" them "a lot.

Trump University Fraud Case  45%
Mexican Judge Comment  55%
Failure to Release Tax Returns  45%
Insults Comments About Women  62%
Claim Mexican Immigrants Are Bringing Crime, Deportation Plans  50%
Temporary Ban on Muslims Entering the Country  50%

Improper Use of Email Server 45%
Paid Speeches to Wall Street banks  50%
Work to Undermine Women's Reputations Who Were Linked Romantically to Bill  34%
Failure as Secretary of State Because of Rise of Middle East Situation and Rise of ISIS  38%
Clinton Foundation Contribution, Possible Favoritism  47%
Clinton Part of Washington Establishment  35%

When a negative issue is polling at the 30% level as a major concern, that probably represents no more than the baseline already supporting the other party's candidate and whose voters are already motivated by these negative issues.  It is when it rises to 40%, 50%, as high as 62% on one of Trump's issues, that the issue seems to be crossing the line to hit independents who are going to decide this election.

Other interesting questions in the poll include a question as to whether a candidate was more or less appealing.  46% said Clinton was appealing while 51% said she was not. But when it came to Trump, 33% said he was appealing and 64%, nearly 2/3 of the electorate polled, said he was not an appealing candidate. 

Surprisingly Clinton also won the enthusiasm question.  43% of Clinton supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about their candidate while only 33% of Trump supporters responded the same way about Donald Trump.

In another question, 55% of poll respondents said they would "never" support Trump, while 43% said the same thing about Hillary Clinton and a surprising 44% said they would "never" vote for the Libertarian Johnson.

While it is still early, it is difficult to see Trump's path to victory given how much of the electorate has been very turned off by him and his campaign.

UPDATE:  On Wednesday, ABC/Washington Post released a favorable/-unfavorable poll showing a substantial increase in people's negative views toward Trump over the past three weeks.  In a poll conducted on May 20th, 60% of people viewed Trump unfavorably.  Three weeks later, Trump's negatives have risen to an astonishing 70%.  During the same period, Clinton's unfavorable numbers rose from 53% to 55%.

Some of the noteworthy declines during the three week period include black voters (14% unfavorable to 4%), conservatives (58% to 47%), women (32% to 23%), non-college graduates (41% to 31%).

In May, I wrote about the historic unpopularity of the two candidates.  Well, they just got even more unpopular, especially Trump.


leon dixon d said...

Polls, schmolls. They don't count. The corruption of law enforcement does. Clinton could have some really bad polling were she facing a trial for treason, for instance.

leon dixon d said... So, you going to believe actual words or the media bilge?

Paul K. Ogden said...

Leon, I'm curious. Do you whistle when you walk by a graveyard?

leon dixon said...

Hey, that is my line! But, let's see if the Republicans can practice the art of personal political destruction when they can all blow their long noses at the criminal bag lady in pantsuits (who has the support of large swaths of crony capitalists). More likely, the elephants will don clothespins for their extended noses and show up at Cleveland to vote for who their voters desired. Note: there are NO Republican "leaders" here...they have all been dissed by their own voters. The question is, are they gong to whore around with duh media and lament their uselessness or are they going to abjure being stupid? I do like it, for instance, that WAPO has been banned from TRUMP proceedings.....WAPO is, basically, a collection of whiner turds....which is why the Indianapolis Star is so enamored of their suits Gannett to lose sentient readers. Speaking of graveyards, isn't that where useless polls wind up having outlived their temporary usefulness? Lots of value there in the graveyard sorta like expired weather forecasts THAT WERE WRONG.
June it is and November is a long way off....and Trump doesn't have to deal with 17 other candidates but only with the Affirmative Action guy and his bag lady in pantsuits....both of whom don't want to face criminal trials and so are perfectly willing to continue to lie, with duh help of duh media and all good POS (plural). Let's see.....Can Republicans figure it out or do they wish to continue to be the loser party.

leon dixon said...

Do you moonlight for WAPO?

leon dixon said...

"The party of Lincoln and Liberty was transmogrified into the party of hairy-backed swamp developers and corporate shills, faith-based economists, fundamentalist bullies with Bibles, Christians of convenience, freelance racists, misanthropic frat boys, shrieking midgets of AM radio, tax cheats, nihilists in golf pants, brownshirts in pinstripes, sweatshop tycoons, hacks, fakirs, aggressive dorks, Lamborghini libertarians, people who believe Neil Armstrong’s moonwalk was filmed in Roswell, New Mexico, little honkers out to diminish the rest of us, Newt’s evil spawn and their Etch-A-Sketch president, a dull and rigid man suspicious of the free flow of information and of secular institutions, whose philosophy is a jumble of badly sutured body parts trying to walk." Stolen from the Prairie Home Companion but fitted to the Indiana Republican Party "leadership".

leon dixon said... Most media seems to be in a similar situation and lying is more than rampant. Not so many Republicans in college faculties and there might be a reason why wimps seem to be in charge there.