The Bloomberg poll is consistent with the Reuters/IPSOS daily tracking poll which until recent days showed Clinton with about a 10.5 point lead over Trump. With the terror attack in Orlando, Trump has picked up a couple points on Clinton, but still trails by 8.5 points. Of course, tracking polls are more about identifying movement in campaigns, not accurately predicting election results.
|Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton|
One of the most interesting part of the Bloomberg survey was when the pollster asked questions about the various negative issues plaguing the two campaigns. While people were troubled by the several Clinton issues, more people were concerned about Trump's. Below is a summary of those issues and the percent of likely voters who said the issue "bothers" them "a lot.
Trump University Fraud Case 45%
Mexican Judge Comment 55%
Failure to Release Tax Returns 45%
Insults Comments About Women 62%
Claim Mexican Immigrants Are Bringing Crime, Deportation Plans 50%
Temporary Ban on Muslims Entering the Country 50%
Improper Use of Email Server 45%
Paid Speeches to Wall Street banks 50%
Work to Undermine Women's Reputations Who Were Linked Romantically to Bill 34%
Failure as Secretary of State Because of Rise of Middle East Situation and Rise of ISIS 38%
Clinton Foundation Contribution, Possible Favoritism 47%
Clinton Part of Washington Establishment 35%
When a negative issue is polling at the 30% level as a major concern, that probably represents no more than the baseline already supporting the other party's candidate and whose voters are already motivated by these negative issues. It is when it rises to 40%, 50%, as high as 62% on one of Trump's issues, that the issue seems to be crossing the line to hit independents who are going to decide this election.
Other interesting questions in the poll include a question as to whether a candidate was more or less appealing. 46% said Clinton was appealing while 51% said she was not. But when it came to Trump, 33% said he was appealing and 64%, nearly 2/3 of the electorate polled, said he was not an appealing candidate.
Surprisingly Clinton also won the enthusiasm question. 43% of Clinton supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about their candidate while only 33% of Trump supporters responded the same way about Donald Trump.
In another question, 55% of poll respondents said they would "never" support Trump, while 43% said the same thing about Hillary Clinton and a surprising 44% said they would "never" vote for the Libertarian Johnson.
While it is still early, it is difficult to see Trump's path to victory given how much of the electorate has been very turned off by him and his campaign.
UPDATE: On Wednesday, ABC/Washington Post released a favorable/-unfavorable poll showing a substantial increase in people's negative views toward Trump over the past three weeks. In a poll conducted on May 20th, 60% of people viewed Trump unfavorably. Three weeks later, Trump's negatives have risen to an astonishing 70%. During the same period, Clinton's unfavorable numbers rose from 53% to 55%.
Some of the noteworthy declines during the three week period include black voters (14% unfavorable to 4%), conservatives (58% to 47%), women (32% to 23%), non-college graduates (41% to 31%).
In May, I wrote about the historic unpopularity of the two candidates. Well, they just got even more unpopular, especially Trump.