Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Expect Trump Victory in Indiana Today

The two most recent Indiana polls show Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz by 15 and 17 points.  It appears that today's Indiana primary, seen as a must win in most political circles, has gotten away from Cruz.  The one thing that the Texas Senator has going for him is superior organization in the
Donald Trump
state.  That probably won't overcome the Trump momentum which is propelling the New York businessman to the nomination.

I don't expect a 15% plus victory for Trump in the state.  But I do expect a Trump victory in the upper single digits, maybe 8% or 9%.  While there is a remote possibility that Cruz pulls off an upset in today's primary, such a victory would be so close that the division of the 57 delegates won't favor him by much when he really needs to walk away with a sizable majority of Indiana delegates. Then you have the  California primary looming on the horizon.  That state has gotten away from Cruz as well with Trump's polling edge ballooning to more than 30 points in the Golden State. 

As a card carrying member of the #NeverTrump club, it is like watching helplessly as your family members join a cult led by a charismatic leader.  You try to reason with them, you try to put out facts that the leader is a charlatan, a phony, but nothing works. 

On the Senate side, I expect the battle of the Republican congressmen to be won by Todd Young, a solid double figure win over his colleague Marlin Stutzman.


Anonymous said...

Gary Welsh was right: Ted Cruz is creepy. It's no wonder Trump is doing so well, with such creepy competition. BTW, Cruz confirmed the validity of Trump's Lyin' Ted nickname when he stated on national TV that Carly Fiorina did NOT accidentally fall from the stage.

Anonymous said...

A liberal Democrat will be the GOP nomination. Hahahahahahaha.

Anonymous said...

http://isaacmorehouse.com/2016/04/30/every-industry-gets-worse-when-government-gets-involved/ The sort of thing that will get Young cross over votes from liberal Democrats?

leon dixon said...

"What is on my mind (and won't go away) is the vision of watching all 57 Indiana Delegates to the National Republican Convention placing their right hands over their hearts and voting for Donald Trump on the first and only ballot. I understand that Rex Early is taking cheerleading lessons.....so as to lead the Elephants in their Unity Dance (Even as Ringling Brothers is making their beasts extinct)." Can we take up a collection for Rex's Tutu?

Paul K. Ogden said...

They can do a "unity dance" until the cows come home, but this conservative, anti-Establishment Republican is joining many like minded Republicans in never voting for Donald Trump. He is a vile, reprehensible human being who is not even remotely qualified for President. He is not a conservative and shares none of my values. Further, I think he is mentally imbalanced and would ignore the Constitution to try to become a dictator. He has a long history of unethical behavior and running cons. He actually praises foreign dictators who put down democratic protests (killing people in the process) and has said Americans have took much freedom to criticize public officials. Trump would have an enemies list on Day 1 and use the IRS, FBI, CIA, etc. to go after them.

I believe like Mr. Koch does that frankly, as much as I am repulsed by Hillary Clinton’s policies, HRC would be a better President. (Certainly their policies would be no different.) I love my country too much to want Donald Trump anywhere near the White House.

I am so disappointed that we are nominating a liberal Democrat for the Republican nomination, someone who will destroy everything Ronald Reagan stood for. DT will set back the conservative movement decades.

Anonymous said...

Hey Paul, America doesn't like the GOP's establishment/donor class policies. They're finally starting to wake up.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Anon 4:25, and you actually bought Donald Trump's act that he is anti-Establishment?

joanna said...

I was doing research on Costco and saw your analysis on your earlier post (to which you've disabled the comments now). Reading the post and the comments, I just found your argument sooooo asinine that I felt simply compelled to post this comment.

You ask why employees are self reporting on glassdoor lower than the claimed $20 average... ever consider that GLASSDOOR.com is not a random sample? In fact, it's pretty skewed... I'm pretty confident the demographic of those using glassdoor.com to report their earnings lean toward younger. The seasoned 20 year veteran who's happy working at Costco making his $24/hr salary probably feels no need to be posting their wages on a site that is ostensibly for job hunters. For an average like the kind you're describing, either full data or a random sample is at minimum needed. But you seem so confident in your math--surely you know this? Or maybe your knowledge of calculating a "mean" never extended to basic statistics.

Anyway, it is a well known fact (emphasis FACT) that Costco pays their employees better than comparable retailers. Countless business case studies (as much as Costco has a distaste for b-school grads) have been written about this citing Costco, Nordstrom, REI as examples of best practices in retail. Whether that average is $20.89 or $19.25 or $23.50 probably varies depending on how you cut the data (does it include overtime? does it include bonuses?). The exact number also changes every year probably based on those critical variables but point is, it's around $20 so get over it.

I know you've got comments on moderation here, and that's fine. But I just found it hilarious and ridiculous how you stuck by this "WAHH people don't know how to calculate average" comment, when the inherent logic behind that glassdoor average is so, so flawed.

Great job, Paul.

Paul K. Ogden said...


I have talked to numerous Costco employees who all refuted the $20.89 an hour claim. I had a HR person look into his facility's pay for hourly employees, and even though he enthusiastically supported Costco, he admits the average hourly pay isn't close to $20.89. You say Glassdoor is skewed...fine. The Glassdoor average is say $14 an hour and you think it's so skewed that the average is off more than $6 an hour? Seriously? How many 20 year Costco employees do you really think there are at $24 an hour (actually the HR person said they top out before that) to offset all the people making $12 and $13 an hour?

The CEO said the $20.89 claim does not include any benefits and of course it doesn't include overtime which, by definition, doesn't change the hourly pay.

"Anyway, it is a well known fact (emphasis FACT) that Costco pays their employees better than comparable retailers." And I have said that over and over again. Costco does pay better than other comparable retailers. But the better pay is $2 to $3 an hour better, not $8 to $9 an hour better. The fact is there is ZERO support for the CEO's claim that Costco pays its employees on average $20.89 an hour. I don't even think you believe that. Rather you just like Costco and you are upset because someone criticized the company and aren't particularly caring if the criticism is true.

You apparently do not have a problem with the CEO of Costco lying. I do.