Saturday, April 23, 2016

Polls Show Trump With Narrow Lead over Cruz in Indiana

Two polls released today show how close the race for the Republican nomination is in the Hoosier state.  A poll by WRTV/Howey Politics shows Donald Trump leading the race with 37%. Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished second at 31% and Ohio Governor John Kasich trailed with 22%.  A Fox
Donald Trump
News survey reported similar results: Trump 41%, Cruz 33% and Kasich 16%.

Trump's leads in both polls are at or inside the margin of error.  Previous results show Trump usually underperforms his poll numbers while Cruz outperforms his. There are exceptions though, most recently New York. 

In the Fox News poll, men heavily favored Trump over Cruz 44% to 33%, but women favored Trump by only 3%.  Although the Fox poll has Trump up by 8 points in likely Republican primary voters, when the poll narrows that group to self-identified Republicans Trump's lead shrinks to 3 points.  That suggests that Indiana's open primary system which permits Democrats to vote in the Republican primary could aid Trump.

Indiana has 57 delegates at stake, 30 are awarded to the statewide winner.  The remaining 27 are apportioned three for the winner of each congressional district.


LamLawIndy said...

I doubt that many Indiana Dems are going to vote in the GOP primary. However, that possibility is one reason why I would eschew the primary process & favor a convention. That and the fact that Indiana taxpayers are footing the bill for the primary.

Paul K. Ogden said...


I don't want to have a nominating process that looks anything like Marion County's rigged slating system...which is what too many conventions resemble. I am fine with the public pay for party's a good expenditure of money to protect people's right to choose their elected officials. My problem is with it being an open primary. I'd like to see Indiana adopt a closed system where pre-registration in the party of your choice is required.