Monday, April 25, 2016

Cruz, Kasich Finally Get It, Agree to Divvy up Efforts in Three States

Yesterday Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich announced that they have reached an agreement where Kasich will not campaign in Indiana (57 delegates) and in return Cruz will not campaign in New Mexico (24 delegates) and Oregon (28 delegates).  

Governor John Kasich (R-Ohio)
Three polls have been released in the last few days showing Trump with only a slight lead over Cruz, at and within the margin of error.  As Cruz normally outperforms his poll numbers while Trump underperforms on a regular basis, the campaign is essentially a dead heat.  Kasich was clearly draining off anti-Trump vote in Indiana and this move may well be enough to allow Cruz to capture the state.

There has been no polling this year in Oregon.  A mid-February poll in New Mexico showed Cruz with a one point (25-24) lead over Trump and Kasich trailing with 4%.  But several candidates have dropped out since then and the race has changed. 

I'm not sure Cruz didn't have a shot at winning both states.   A press release by the Kasich campaign says that New Mexico and Oregon are "structurally similar to the Northeast politically where Gov. Kasich is performing well."  But Kasich is not performing well in the Northeast.  In those Northeastern states where Cruz is not competitive and Kasich is supposed to be the primary competition to Trump, the Ohio Governor is wholly failing to perform.  Kasich was trounced in New York and, according, the polls, about to be beaten badly in several Northeastern states that have their primaries tomorrow.

Of course, the Trump people immediately cited the deal as evidence there is an "Establishment conspiracy" to stop the New York businessman from getting the nomination.  Of course, anything that isn't pro-Trump is pro-Establishment to Trumpites.  Could it may instead be that many of us in the Republican Party don't want a completely unqualified liberal , the most hated candidate in the history of polling, to be our presidential nominee?

The deal shows that the Cruz and Kasich campaigns realize they need to work together to stop the disaster for the GOP that would be a Trump nomination.  My only question is what took them so long to figure this out.

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