Monday, March 28, 2016

For the First Time Most Democrats Are Feeling the Bern

The coverage about the Democratic delegate race overlooks a very important development last week. For the first time during the 2016 campaign cycle a poll showed Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders leading former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The poll by Bloomberg has Sanders at 49% and Clinton at 48%.  While that's well within the margin
Sen. Bernie Sanders
of error, in June of 2015, polls showed Clinton as much as 60% ahead of Sanders. It's been quite a rally by Sanders.

Clinton leads Sanders 1243-975 in pledged delegates. That is a margin that could be bridged especially in light of recent Sanders' momentum, as evidenced by landslide victories in five recent state caucuses.  However, Clinton's commanding 469-29 lead in superdelegates makes it virtually impossible for Sanders to win.  While the superdelegates could switch their allegiences, I think that is unlikely to happen. 

For the record, I don't buy the Clinton talking point that she will be a better general election candidate than Sanders. Clinton's negatives are extraordinarily high (exceeded only by Republican Donald Trump) and every poll shows Sanders, not Clinton, the stronger candidate against the GOP in the fall.

4 comments:

Flogger said...

It is amazing that Bernie Sanders has come so far, given the little press coverage he has received compared to Trump. There has been a constant drumbeat to drown out his message, such as he is a fringe candidate, etc. Sanders has challenged Hillary to a debate before the New York Primary but so far she has refused, because according to her spokesman Joel Benenson, the campaign's chief strategist, Bernie is running a negative campaign.

The debates were fixed by Debbie Wasserman Schultz at the DNC, fewer debates than the Republicans. Hillary can count on the Corporate Democrats to "push" the slate, which she will head.

LamLawIndy said...

Paul, do u think that Sen. Sanders is gambling on some sort of charges/indictment against Sec'y Clinton to swing superdelegates his way?

Paul K. Ogden said...

Lam, I don't think so. I doubt an indictment would happen given the position she is seeking. (If she were a regular person I think she'd already been charged by now.) Plus, he has no problem funding his campaign so I think he's just milking the limelight as long as it lasts. But he seriously can't believe he can catch up.

Anonymous said...

Hey Paul you and your fascist religious nuts should watch Saudi Arabia Uncovered | FRONTLINE | PBS.

Is that what you want the US to be like?