In Utah, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is a solid favorite, leading his next closes rival by more than 20% in
One other thing is noteworthy about the Utah Republican Caucus...and makes it more difficult to predict. The Utah Republican Party offers the opportunity for its members to vote over the internet instead of requiring voters to show up at their caucus site. People will be watching closely to see what difference this unique system has on the outcome.
Arizona, which has 58 delegates, will also be holding its winner-take-all primary today. Trump has had a consistent 12-14 point lead over Ted Cruz lead in that state's polling, with the current Real Clear Politics average of polls at 13%. But Trump usually underperforms his poll numbers while Cruz almost always does better than his. While I think the race will be closer (single digits certainly), I think Trump pulls it out.
I would rate the odds of Trump obtaining the necessary 1237 delegates to avoid a brokered convention at 65%. If he loses Arizona, then I think it declines to 55%. If Trump wins Arizona's delegates, then I'd move his chance of getting the necessary delegates from 65% to 70%. That 15% swing makes it a big state.
In addition to similar contests being held today in Arizona and Utah, Democrats also have a caucus in Idaho. My guess is Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders wins Idaho and Utah, but loses Arizona. As Democrats award their delegates proportionally, it is virtually impossible for Sanders to catch Hillary Clinton.
Paul -- I'd be interested to hear what you think about the correlation between states where Sanders showed greatest strength in the D primary and Cruz performed best (e.g. Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, Idaho and now Utah). What to make of that "alignment"?
Anon, I'm not sure the connection or if there is one. Cruz tends to do better out West and Sanders does too, the latter undoubtedly because of a smaller African-American population. The connection between the two I'm not sure I can explain. Certainly they are both anti-Establishment, but then too (allegedly) Trump is too.
Post a Comment