Friday, April 10, 2015

Poll Shows Republicans Drawing Even or Ahead of Hillary Clinton in 2 of 3 Swing States

A Quinnipiac Poll released yesterday shows expected Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton struggling in head-to-head matchups with Republican candidates.  The three states polled were Colorado, Iowa and Virginia.   According to the narrative in the report:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's lead is wilting against leading Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, and she finds herself in a close race with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in each state, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. In head-to-head 
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
matchups, every Republican candidate effectively ties her in Colorado and almost all Republicans effectively tie her in Iowa. 
Secretary Clinton has lost ground in almost every matchup in Colorado and Iowa since a February 18 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac University. The Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.  
One bright spot for Clinton is Virginia, the largest of the three states, where she leads all Republicans, including 47 - 40 percent over Bush, compared to a 42 - 42 percent tie in February.   
Voters in each state say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Her overall favorability has dropped significantly in Colorado and Iowa, while Virginia is unchanged. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are lackluster, at best.
"Ominous for Hillary Clinton is the broad scope of the movement today compared to her showing in Quinnipiac University's mid-February survey. It isn't just one or two Republicans who are stepping up; it's virtually the entire GOP field that is running better against her.
"That's why it is difficult to see Secretary Clinton's slippage as anything other than a further toll on her image from the furor over her e-mail."
"In all three of these states, more, and in Colorado many more, registered voters say she is not honest and trustworthy," Brown added. "Voters do think she is a strong leader - a key metric - but unless she can change the honesty perception, running as a competent but dishonest candidate has serious potential problems."
Below, I list how the margins between the GOP candidates in their polling matchups with Hillary Clinton:

Paul  +3
Rubio +1
Walker +1
Huckabee  Even
Cruz -1
Christie -2
Bush -3

Paul +1
Rubio  +1
Huckabee  Even
Bush  -1
Christie -2
Cruz  -3
Walker -4

Paul  -4
Walker -7
Bush -7
Christie -7
Rubio -8
Huckabee -8
Cruz -10


Indy Student said...

Those Virginia numbers are absolutely scary for anyone hoping it'll be a POTUS swing state. If Dems can reliably count on Virginia's electoral votes, the Republicans will have to win Ohio+Florida+a coalition of smaller swing states.

Paul K. Ogden said...

IS, but there are other states coming into play for Republicans, states like Wisconsin, Iowa, maybe Michigan and Colorado. They might even start chipping off a northeastern state. I think Republicans are in remarkably good shape going into 2016 and if I had to bet the farm, I'd bet we'll have a Republican President come January 20, 2017.

Anonymous said...

Hillary Rodham Clinton is long past her sell-by date. The only qualification for HRC to be POTUS is because she wants it, that's it. She accomplished absolutely nothing in her life other than to ride Bill's coat tails... she could never be where she is had she not bitterly clung to WJC through the decades and through his multiple victims of female sex abuse. If anyone is waging a "war against women" it is both Hillary Rodham Clinton and her unfaithful husband.

Scandal after scandal plague this harpie. The old woman hasn't driven a car in almost two decades. The young voters today are rejecting this woman... poll after poll shows she is an unattractive antique better suited for the attic.


Flogger said...

Hillary reminds me of one of these old musical groups from decades ago. There was high point but she never really had the talent to reach or sustain stardom as a solo act. The music is old and stale, and there maybe some lip syncing when she can no longer hit all the notes. Now Hillary thinks all she has to do is step out on stage and claim the Grammy Obama won in 2008.

As a Leftie I would prefer Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Both Warren and Sanders have addressed issues. Hillary has sat back and waited for her coronation.

The Republicans, well I see them once again engaged in savage infighting. Jeb Bush will think he is in the middle of a verbal Bombing or Gunnery Range. I look forward to seeing Christie and Rand Paul in a debate, both are sullen and aggressive.

Anonymous said...

Hillary is a corporate whore just like all the Republicans.

Indy Student said...

Well let's take Obama's 2012 electoral college victory, which is actually two states less and several million votes less than his 2008 victory.

That EC total is 332.

Assuming the Dem nominee holds Virginia but loses Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Colorado, that brings the Democratic electoral total to 291.

Hell lets just throw in Ohio and the Dems still hold on with 273.

It takes 270 to win.

I know a lot of Republicans like to write off Karl Rove as some sort of idiot, but he summed up the Romney path to victory perfectly. Based off of McCain's electoral college victory, Romney needed 3-2-1. What he meant was that he needs to win all three of the major swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. He needs to then win the two traditionally POTUS Republican states that Obama won in 08. Then he needs to win one of the smaller swing states such as New Hampshire, colorado, Iowa, etc... Any one of those loses would mean those elecotral votes would have to be made elsewhere.

Ultimately, Romney, with approximately 1 million more votes than McCain had, only won North Carolina and Indiana back. Those three big swing states are going to be hard to break, and even winning only one of them means you still have to sweep the smaller swing states or count on unlikely victories in places like Pennsylvania or Michigan.

LamLawIndy said...

Well, HRC has virtually 100% name recognition (most of the GOP field doesn't) & these polls are 18 months from the general election. I'm not sure how relevant these polls are given the length of time before the election AND the lack of a clear opponent.

William said...

The map may be shifting as to what has been considered safe states in either the Dem or GOP column but the overall map still favors the Dem candidate.

With growing Latino voters in what have been traditionally strong GOP states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia are going to be more in play going forward which will/would offset any loses of Michigan, Iowa, and even Pennsylvania.

As for 2016 its still to early to put any faith in these poll numbers. Hilary Clinton is very likely to be the nominee but her challenger will play a huge role in how the swing states will play out. As will the Veep selections.

Anonymous said...

Way too early for this, Paul.

If Hillary is against a warmongering neocon like Rubio or Cruz, she'll crush either of them in the press and debates.

This election will depend on how much Hillary gets bloodied in her primary and who the Republicans nominate.

Anonymous said...

Let's not forget that times were much better under Clinton than any time in the past 15 years.

Many people would happily turn the clock back to 1997.

Let's also not forget that Bill is the best there is in politics. With Bill in an active role, Hillary is going to be tough to beat.