Review of Indianapolis Council Map Reveals Numerous Opportunities for Democrats to Obtain a Majority

Today marked the final day to file for municipal races including Indianapolis City-County Council.  With the elimination of the four at-large districts by the Indiana General Assembly, 25 districts are up for grabs.  The map drawn by Republican political operative David Brooks and passed during by the lame duck GOP majority after the 2011 elections, was projected (ussing 2010 data) to have 15 Republican districts and 10 Democratic districts. At that time, the four at-large districts had not yet been eliminated. So Brooks drew the districts to retain a Republican majority even with the expected election of four at-large Democrats.

The strategy may well backfire.   In order to create 15 Republican districts out of 25, Brooks had to cut the GOP majorities in those districts terribly close.  As a result, the baselines in two of the 15 districts that were Republican have now switched to Democratic majority.  So the 15-10 split is now 13-12.  Plus, the Democrats have numerous targets to pick up that final seat.

Below is a table of the top 10 closest races in the 2015 elections and which incumbent currently resides in the district:

Rating	Dist.	Incumbent	2014 GOP Baseline	2012 GOP Baseline	2010 GOP Baseline
1	2	Open	49.78%	48.35%	51.98%
2	21	Mascari (D)	50.75%	42.48%	50.43%
3	16	Miller (R)	49.13%	41.2%	51.55%
4	6	McHenry (R)	51.55%	43.37%	52.38%
5	19	Hunter (R)	52.5%	43.61%	52.09%
6	3	Scales (R)	53.95%	50.38%	52.38%
7	22	Lutz (R)	54.78%	44.75%	55.69%
8	15	Pfisterer (R)	55.02%	45.3%	55.85%
9	22	Open (formerly Cain (R))	55.08%	44.75%	55.69%
10	4	McQuillen (R)	57.01%	51.47%	57.37%

The most relevant baseline is the 2014 one.  That is closest in terms of time and most similiar to the low turnout one would expect in a municipal election.  Obviously if there is unusually high turnout, that would be a problem as reflected in the 2012 presidential election year baseline.  Republican numbers plummeted in every one of the 10 closest districts.

Finally, District 2 contains much of the old District 3, a district originally by Republican Ryan Vaughn who was succeeded by Will Gooden when Vaughn became chief of staff to the Mayor Greg Ballard.  That looks like a tough district for Republicans to hold onto, especially facing Kip Tew who has the contacts to raise a substantial amount of money..  While District 21 appears like a possible Republican pickup, the only one of the 10 closest races, in fact that is still one of the 15 districts that was originally drawn to have a Republican majority.

The Republicans could win a majority of council seats, but that would appear to be a long shot.