Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Marion County Results Show Democrats Continue to Make Gains; Republicans Lose Ground in 5 of 8 Townships

Today, the Marion County Democratic Party continued its now decade long domination of Marion County politics, sweeping all county wide races on the ballot. This includes the marquee race featuring Marion County Sheriff John Layton versus Republican challenger Emmett Carney, the sole Republican the local GOP decided to assist, dropping thousands of dollars in last minute negative mailing slamming Layton.   Carney feared poorly losing 59% to 41%.  Meanwhile Democratic Prosecutor Terry Curry won with over 61% of the vote  The Democrats also prevailed in two key house races as Democratic incumbents Christina Hale and Karlee Macer edged out Republican challengers though hampered by low Democratic turnout.

Trying to deterimine baseline numbers for the county was difficult this election as, is unusual, the results in the low profile countywide races varied wildly, which is very unusual.  I decided to use the County Auditor race to form the baseline.  Using those election results, the Republican baseline continued to fall in the county, although by only .32% compared to 2010.

Looking at township races though, it looks even worse for Republicans.  Lawrence Township, once a bastion of Republican votes, appears to have flipped completely with the Democrats winning every township race by a comfortable margin.  The GOP vote in that township dropped 4.36% from 2010.  The Republican vote in Warren and Washington Township dropped by 3.35% and 2.8% respectively from four years earlier.

Although Republican Andy Harris won an impressive, albeit narrow in win in his re-election bid as Wayne Township Trustee, Wayne lost its judge and constable races by 3.5% or more.  The Wayne Township GOP baseline appeared to drop from 50.06% in 2010 to 48.16% in 2014.

Even Perry Township faced declining Republican vote with its baseline slipping from 68.57% in 2010 to 65.41% four years later.

Republican bright spots?  Well Center Township stayed about the same, increasingly slightly from 24.64% in 2010 to 25.06%.  Meanwhile, Decatur was up from 63.14% in 2010 to 68.61% in 2014. The surprise of the night though was Pike which saw its Republican baseline increase from 34.8% in 2010 to 37.07% in 2014.    In 2010, there was 6.8% separating Pike, the second most Democratic township, with Washington Township, the third most.  After the 2014 election, that margin had been cut to 1.73%.  I've been saying that Democratic gains in Pike, my home township, were nearing an end.  I think after 20 years of consistent Democratic gains, it may have finally happened.

By the way, for the township baseline races I used the judge races in those townships and where there wasn't a D-R judge race, I looked at the Trustee's race.  I couldn't analyze Franklin as the Democrats did not field a candidate in that township.

Once the figures are available, I may try to redo the township baseline numbers looking at countywide races within the townships.

1 comment:

MikeC said...

I'm thinking that the results vis a vis a 44% GOP base would give Ballard a reason to run next year.