Analysis Show Republicans Have Little Hope of Winning a Majority on the Indianapolis Council

Jon Murray of the Indianapolis Star pens a nice article about the pending redistricting dispute involving the Indianapolis City-County council.  Murray does a good job of discussing the advantages and disadvantages both parties face in gaining a majority.

Unfortunately, when you look at the baseline numbers in the districts drawn by GOP operative David Brooks, you realize that the odds of the Republicans regaining a majority on the council, even if they get court approval of their own map, is very slim and none.

Brooks was given the responsibility of drawing 15 Republican council districts out of 25.  That 15-10 majority would be sufficient to survive the likelihood of the Democrats winning all four at-large seats.  After the Brooks' map was drawn, the General Assembly eliminated the at-large seats.

When I studied the baselines in the GOP-drawn map, I did not see the Republicans winning 15 districts, not even close.  In column two is the 2010 GOP baseline numbers used by Brooks. (Due to reprecincting between 2010 and 2012, I couldn't confirm those 2010 district numbers.)  The third column is the my analysis using 2012 baseline numbers.  The fourth column is my analysis of the district, i.e. strongly, moderately or leaning Democrat or Republican.

Granted the 2012 numbers which feature higher turnout than 2010 would more likely favor the Democrats.  But even taking that into consideration the even lower turnout in a municipal election, it would not appear the numbers would move dramatically enough to give Republicans a majority of the 25 seats.

Using the Brooks' map, only 8 of the 25 districts had a majority Republican baseline in 2012. The Republicans have to win all eight of those districts (and four of those are just barely leaning Republican) and five more majority Democratic districts. But there is only one leaning Democratic district and three moderately Democratic districts.  A strongly Democratic district would also have to flip to the Republicans.  The best candidates for that possibility are districts 16, 19, and 21, districts that appeared to have moved by an amazing 18-20 points in the Democrats' direction between 2010 and 2012. Of course, that assumes the Brooks' 2010 baseline numbers are accurate.
 

Dist	2010 GOP Pct	2012 GOP Pct	Partisan Outlook
1	41.8	35.31	SD
2	51.98	48.85	LD
3	55.12	50.38	LR
4	57.37	51.47	LR
5	55.57	50.71	LR
6	52.38	43.37	MD
7	20.91	19.45	SD
8	23.98	19.53	SD
9	16.45	14.78	SD
10	22.35	17.75	SD
11	15.48	15.36	SD
12	42.42	33.96	SD
13	17.96	13.12	SD
14	23.25	16.29	SD
15	55.85	45.3	MD
16	51.55	41.2	SD
17	18.08	15.39	SD
18	60.82	52.36	LR
19	52.09	43.61	SD
20	65.79	59.12	SR
21	50.43	42.48	SD
22	55.69	44.75	MD
23	65.65	60.13	SR
24	64.18	58.87	SR
25	70.28	66.18	SR

Assuming that the Brooks' map is better for Republican than the map drawn by the Democrats or by the courts, there doesn't appear to be much hope for the GOP to win a majority on the Indianapolis City-County Council in the 2015 municipal elections.