Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Result of Virginia Governor's Race Reveal Dark Clouds on Horizon for Democrats

Republican Ken Cuccinelli
Election 2013 was not supposed to feature any close race.  One of the featured battles for Governor of Virginia was wrapped up months ago, as Republcian Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has been successfully marginalized by Democrats as a "fringe" candidate.  Democrat political operative Terry McAuliffe had the race wrapped up according to the polls. The Real Clear Politics average of polls showed him with a 6.7% spread that would have produced a margin of 13 to 14 points..

But on Election Night, McAuliffe, who had spent $14 million more than his opponent, found himself neck-and-neck with Kuccineli, only managing to pull out a 48% to 46% victory.   What happened?

Obamacare happened.

Real Clear Politics describes the last minute change in Kuccineli's strategy that sparked his quickly closing what the polling firm Rasmussen had found was a 17 point lead for McAuliffe only two weeks earlier:
In the final days of the race, Cuccinelli framed it as a referendum on Obamacare, running ads suggesting that a vote for his opponent would be a vote for the controversial health care law. The Republican attorney general hoped the Affordable Care Act’s flawed implementation and the number of newly canceled insurance policies would spark conservative voters and drag down McAuliffe..."
And it did.

The Democrats entire strategy was based on marginalizing Cuccinelli as some far right, tea party conservative well out of the Virginia mainstream.   The Democrats got a lesson on how quickly that strategy will fall apart in light of the failures of Obamacare.


Mike Kole said...

My take was that if the R's ran a candidate who was not a social conservative, that candidate wins going away.

Jeff Cox said...

Mike, that was my take as well.

guy77money said...

I agree with you guys, but Paul is right Obama care is huge right now. My insurance is going up big time or I can pick another policy where I pay less but the deductible 5 grand. Do I gamble and say my family and I have been healthy and I will never get close to the five grand? Or do I do the safe thing and pay the extra premiums because it's cheaper then 5 grand a year? People don't like change and choices and it will back fire on the Democrats.

Anonymous said...

Black clouds for Democrats? Right...never mind that we witnessed yet another tea party candidate go down in flames.

Vinstri Sokkar said...


Sorry for going a bit off topic, but to address your comments....

The concept of "deductible" for most plans offered through the exchange is a little different from what you may expect based on your other insurance experiences. For example, even if you haven't reached your "deductible" limit, under many plans offered through the exchange, your insurance would still cover between 60% and 80% (sometimes 100%) of the cost of many services. That's not true for all services, but it is true for many of them. So read the plans carefully.

Also, keep in mind that many plans have very low maximum out-of-pocket limits, sometime only a little more than the listed "deductible' amount.

So once people figure out that the policies are actually pretty good, Obamacare will be help, not hurt, the Democrats. But yes, it may take some time, possibly years, for that message to get out.


Unknown said...

Storm clouds, huh? A Democrat took over a Republican governorship in an off year election where the Democrats controlled the White House. And won with a guy that has very little experience running for office and comes off as a used car salesman. And he still won against an opponent that held statewide office.

guy77money said...

Thanks Vinstri I haven't researched it yet (which I do with almost everything) we are having meetings to explain in a week or two so I will print out your post and it will help me ask questions. It is mostly hearsay from friends and co-workers at work. I will keep a open mind.

Ellen said...

Sorry, but Cuccinelli's anti-woman stance did him in.

When will the GOP learn that the government should stop trying to tell women what to do with their own bodies?

Pete Boggs said...

OK Ellen, that's laughable, "telling women what to do...," when it's the aforementioned women who are telling others what to do with their bodies; labor enslaved to pay for phony "entitlements."

How is one person's chosen behavior, a mortgage on the time & life of another forced to subsidize it? Where's the "logic" in that?

Ellen said...

Pay attention, Pete:

Women are tired of the GOP ragging on restricting their access to legal abortion and contraception.

Not sure what enslaved labor you're talking about...but you sound like the typical old white Republican male who just doesn't get it.

It's not the 1950s any more.

Blog Admin said...

My take is these were two absolutely horrible candidates but at least Cooch had run successfully for public office before.

The polls were off but these elections that are held in odd number years with nothing else going on can be hard to poll.

Look at the Lt Gov's race and note how the Dem has an almost 10 point difference in their victory over the GOP candidate. In what was formerly a red state, that is absolutely horrible. That shows a lot of people split their ballots in one way or another. A lot of people who didn't vote for McAwful voted for his Lt Gov.

The AG's race is under a recount but the Dem seems to have a very slight lead. And it looks like the VA GOP will still maintain control of their legislature.

As for Obamacare, who knows? Republicans tried to make 2012 a referendum on it and they lost seats in both the US House, US Senate, and lost the Presidency. Maybe now the affects of Obamacare are starting to kick in, that'll change. But they've tried it before and it didn't work out so well.

Blog Admin said...

Also, yeah, maybe you shouldn't run the guy who wants to make sodomy illegal even though the Supremes said those laws are unconstitutional.

Pete Boggs said...

And you're likewise invited to pay attention Ellen. Try something a little more enlightened; like contraceptive conscience, nothing "republican" about that ...

Think before you act or bravely endure the consequences rather than insist it's somehow brave to make another pay with their life or life in the form of their labor spent to pay for your / others behavior.

Teleport yourself to a time beyond a convenient "present."

Ellen said...

Too obscure for me, Pete.

What, exactly, does a woman's right to abortion and contraception have to do with anyone/anything else?

Pete Boggs said...


If we're discussing it at all Ellen; events leading to conception / pregnancy are the exact responsibility of primary actors; who possess no cavalier right to the life & time of others; taking by abortion as contraception or life / labor stolen by percents for related & so called "entitlements."

Constitutionally speaking, there is no "right," to abortion. Considering the DOI is inextricable from the Constitution (follow on, related document), the primacy of life is arguably more protected than its taking.