Yesterday turned out to be a very
bad day for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. Polls from nine battleground states were
reported on Real Clear Politics. All showed President Obama with a significant
lead, some outside the margin of error:
Colorado (PPP) Obama +6
North Carolina (Civitas) Obama +4
Nevada (ARG) Obama +7
Iowa (ARG) Obama +7
Florida (ARG) Obama +5
Michigan (Rasmussen) Obama +12
Wisconsin (WeAskAmerica) Obama +12
Pennsylvania (Mercyhurst University) Obama +8
Minnesota (Star Tribune/Mason Dixon) Obama +8
The bad news continues today with three polls of Florida and
Ohio voters:
Florida (Washington Post) Obama +4
Ohio (Washington Post) Obama +8
Ohio (Gravis Marketing) +1
While polls of Arkansas (Romney +21) and Montana (Romney +9)
voters in the last couple days showed Romney in the lead in those two states,
those are states in which Romney should be leading.
NOTE: My recent analysis of the effect of the undecided vote in the states was done before these latest state polls which would have changed my calculations.
6 comments:
The GOP deserves another four years of Obama.
I remember Bart Peterson having a significant lead in the polls, too.
Gallup & others- Majority of Americans ID themselves as Conservative v Liberal, R v D, & Independents ranging from 27-44% this year.
Most "polls" completely ignore the 2010 composite & are exclusively 2008 skewed. D's are oversampled 7-15%+ while I's are undersampled 26%+.
Caution: don't use the aforementioned "methodology" to invest your 401K money
Misery loves company & progressives are therewith incorporated
Here's one way to get involved, in counting the vote to make certain the votes of Americans are counted: www.truethevote.org
Except if you look at the cross tabs you would see that these polls use samples with a Dem advantage of +7 to +9. Which would outstrip their 2008 advantage and, for that matter, every election in history.
Polling is not an exact science. Many states don't have party identification via voter registration. What polls ask for, they ask for self-identification. And people can be fluid about that, especially if they voted in a caucus or primary but planned on voting for another party's candidates in the Fall.
And if you look at the trend, since 2009 there have been a lot of Rs "leaving" the party and becoming independents but still voting Republican. We're starting to see a similar trend with Democrats and independents as well, though we probably won't see an exodus similar to the Republicans until Obama is out of office.
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