Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Recent Battleground State Polls Show President Obama Opening Up Significant Lead

Yesterday turned out to be a very bad day for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. Polls from nine battleground states were reported on Real Clear Politics.   All showed President Obama with a significant lead, some outside the margin of error:

Colorado (PPP) Obama +6
North Carolina (Civitas) Obama +4
Nevada (ARG) Obama +7
Iowa (ARG) Obama +7
Florida (ARG) Obama +5
Michigan (Rasmussen) Obama +12
Wisconsin (WeAskAmerica) Obama +12
Pennsylvania (Mercyhurst University) Obama +8
Minnesota (Star Tribune/Mason Dixon) Obama +8

The bad news continues today with three polls of Florida and Ohio voters: 

Florida (Washington Post) Obama +4
Ohio (Washington Post) Obama +8
Ohio (Gravis Marketing) +1 

While polls of Arkansas (Romney +21) and Montana (Romney +9) voters in the last couple days showed Romney in the lead in those two states, those are states in which Romney should be leading.
NOTE:  My recent analysis of the effect of the undecided vote in the states was done before these latest state polls which would have changed my calculations.


M Theory said...

The GOP deserves another four years of Obama.

Downtown Indy said...

I remember Bart Peterson having a significant lead in the polls, too.

Pete Boggs said...

Gallup & others- Majority of Americans ID themselves as Conservative v Liberal, R v D, & Independents ranging from 27-44% this year.

Most "polls" completely ignore the 2010 composite & are exclusively 2008 skewed. D's are oversampled 7-15%+ while I's are undersampled 26%+.

Caution: don't use the aforementioned "methodology" to invest your 401K money

Misery loves company & progressives are therewith incorporated

Pete Boggs said...

Here's one way to get involved, in counting the vote to make certain the votes of Americans are counted: www.truethevote.org

Jeff Cox said...

Except if you look at the cross tabs you would see that these polls use samples with a Dem advantage of +7 to +9. Which would outstrip their 2008 advantage and, for that matter, every election in history.

Blog Admin said...

Polling is not an exact science. Many states don't have party identification via voter registration. What polls ask for, they ask for self-identification. And people can be fluid about that, especially if they voted in a caucus or primary but planned on voting for another party's candidates in the Fall.

And if you look at the trend, since 2009 there have been a lot of Rs "leaving" the party and becoming independents but still voting Republican. We're starting to see a similar trend with Democrats and independents as well, though we probably won't see an exodus similar to the Republicans until Obama is out of office.