|President Barack Obama|
Some good news for Romney is the Rasmussen (national) tracking poll shows him surging to 4 points ahead. Tracking polls, however, are really about detecting movement, not so much about giving an accurate picture of where the electorate stands. Still it shows movement in Romney's favor, which doesn't seem to be showing up in other polls. Instead of showing clear trends, the Rasmussen tracking poll has jumped back and forth for months.
I fully anticipate that Romney will trail in the national polls until the convention at which time he will move ahead with the traditional post-convention bounce. Unfortunately for Romney, a week later the Democrats will host their own convention which also comes with a bounce for President Obama.