Friday, August 10, 2012

New Fox News Poll Shows Obama Up by 9 Points

President Barack Obama
There appears to, finally, be detectable movement in the national polls.  A recent Fox News Poll shows President Barack Obama leading by 9% over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  (That polls has a margin of error of +/- 3 points, which makes it one of the few outside the six point margin of error range.)  A CNN poll released this week shows the Obama lead at 7%.  Other bad news for Romney is that a CBS and Rasmussen poll show him trailing in Virginia.  While Obama won that state in 2008, I think it will go to Romney in 2012. However, the fact he may have to spend resources to win it is troubling for the Romney folks.  They need to put Virginia in the bag early on so the campaign can concentrate the campaign's efforts in the Midwestern battleground states.

Some good news for Romney is the Rasmussen (national) tracking poll shows him surging to 4 points ahead. Tracking polls, however, are really about detecting movement, not so much about giving an accurate picture of where the electorate stands.  Still it shows movement in Romney's favor, which doesn't seem to be showing up in other polls.  Instead of showing clear trends, the Rasmussen tracking poll has jumped back and forth for months.

I fully anticipate that Romney will trail in the national polls until the convention at which time he will move ahead with the traditional post-convention bounce.  Unfortunately for Romney, a week later the Democrats will host their own convention which also comes with a bounce for President Obama.

1 comment:

M Theory said...

The ReBLOODlicans are getting what is coming to them from the DemoCRYPTS!

Why America continue to fall into the deception of this fake left vs. right battle for the presidency, is beyond me.

Anyone who would vote for either one is either immoral or stupid.