Friday, August 24, 2012

Fox News Poll Show Nine Point President Obama Lead Evaporated in Two Weeks, Romney Now Leads By One Percent

Mitt Romney
On Friday, August 9, 2012 Fox News released a poll showing President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 9 points, 49-40.   That poll was before the selection of Paul Ryan as Vice President.  It is one of the few polls showing Obama's lead outside the margin of error, which in that poll was plus or minus 3 points.

Yesterday, exactly two weeks later, Fox News released another poll, this time showing Romney leading by one point, 45-44.

Any time you look at polling, the best analysis compares apples to apples.  Don't compare a poll done by A to a poll done by B.  Every pollster has a different methodology that affects the results.  The best analysis is when you can compare a poll by A to an earlier poll by A.  When the comparison reveals a 10 point swing, as it does here, that is big news.

When I mentioned this over on Facebook, I was criticized for using a Fox News poll since the network is allegedly biased against President Obama.  You know what?  It doesn't matter one bit if Fox News is biased.   Unless you can say Fox News became more biased towards Obama from the first poll to the second, then the poll numbers have relevance.   That relevance is not the overall numbers, but rather the 10 point swing in Romney's direction.

While I still think President Obama is the favorite, continued bad economic news might change my view on his re-election chances.  I have long said too that he would be wise to replace Biden with Hillary Clinton as his running mate.  HC would energize a bland re-election campaign and eliminate Obama's concern with his gaffe-prone VP.

1 comment:

I know said...

If Obama wants to win he replaces either Biden and moves Clinton in or brings in Dick Lugar as VP or Sec. of State!

Lugar has nothing to lose and still stays active as he wanted to do and goes out with his legacy far stronger.

Yes, Republicans would rail but isn't it about time this country did the right thing?