Santorum Defies Polls, Scores Two Upsets in the South

Almost all of the polls leading up to today Rick Santorum finishing third in both Alabama and Mississippi.  Tonight though shows sometimes polls can be wrong.  Santorum finished tonight with  impressive win in both states despite being heavily outspent by Mitt Romney.

Sen. Rick Santorum

Right now,  Romney, the so-called inevitable GOP nominee, finished third in both states, behind second place Newt Gingrich who had staked his campaign on a southern strategy.

What if the former speaker were not in the race?  Clearly most of Gingrich's supporters would move to Santorum.  If Gingrich had dropped out, Santorum would have easily won Michigan and Ohio rather than narrowly losing those two states.  Polls in another midwestern state, Illinois, show Romney ahead of Santorum by 4 points, while Gingrich is at 12%.  Romney's quest for the nomination depends on Gingrich staying in the race, splitting the conservative and anti-Romney vote.  If the Speaker can stay in a little longer, it will put Santorum in a delegate hole he can't get out of. 

In his concession speech tonight, Gingrich though gave no indication he was dropping out.  Instead he seemed focused on Romney's poor finish and that he could be in the driver's seat in a contested convention.

Oh, by the way, the exit polling in both Alabama and Mississippi showed Santorum was the most popular candidate among women and that Santorum polls signficantly better with women than men.

One more state - Hawaii - is on the agenda for tonight.   Romney is expected to win the state though I haven't seen any polling.