Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Polls Show Romney Going From Eight Points Down to Eight Points Ahead in Just Three Days

Mitt Romney
The polling in the Republican presidential nomination has now swung back the other way.  After his South Carolina win, Newt Gingrich almost immediately wiped out Mitt Romney's lead in Florida and moved several points ahead.   That lead faded almost overnight as polls show Romney regaining the lead.

The poll I found the most telling in terms of the recent trend in Florida is the last two Insider Advantage (IA) Florida polls.  In a 1/22 poll, IA's poll had Gingrich leading Romney 34-26.  In a poll conducted on 1/25, IA shows Romney leading 40-32.  While Gingrich only lost 2 points on his total, Romney gained 14 points.  Santorum and Paul were down 3 and 4 points respectively in the poll.  The remaining 5 point increase in Romney's numbers were undecideds breaking his way as the January 31st primary draws near.

Gingrich has a week to turn things around.  If he fails, Romney will have resurrected a campaign that was beginning to flounder.


Nicolas Martin said...

Or the ex-Mrs. Newt will have resurrected Romney. The Republicans are desperate searching for the evil the suits their embrace best.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Nah, Nicolas, the ex-Mrs. Newt allegations were front and center in the S.C. primary and Gingrich won resoundingly. The people in Florida are more likely moved by Gingrich's Freddie Mac connections and the ethics case against him as Speaker.

Nicolas Martin said...

The Freddie Mac issue and Gingrich's other foibles have been widely publicized longer than his penchant for open marriage. I think SC is not representative of the country, and most people care more about sexual indiscretion than about political-financial corruption. The SC vote was against a Mormon, not for Newt.

Paul K. Ogden said...


I disagree. The people in SC don't have a problem with Romney because he's a Mormon. They have a problem against him because of his views. If Romney were a Mormon like Orrin Hatch, a strong conservative who is with the evangicals on every issue, they would have gladly voted for him.

Florida is more of a moderate state. They don't have as much of an issue with Romney's more liberal views. I don't agree that Gingrich's ethics case and problems lobbying for Freddie Mac, or consulting or whatever he was doing, has been fully vetted. Among insiders, yes, among outsiders no.

If voters cared about sexual indiscretions they wouldn't have elected Bill Clinton twice. Now they truly have an open marriage.

Nicolas Martin said...

Republican evangelicals have great problems with Romney's Mormonism.

Why Evangelicals Don’t Like Mormons

According to a CNN exit poll of South Carolina Republican primary voters, Newt Gingrich, a thrice-married Catholic, won twice as much support from evangelical Protestants as Mitt Romney, a Protestant. And among voters for whom religion meant “a great deal,” 46 percent voted for Mr. Gingrich and only 10 percent for Mr. Romney.