Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Ron Paul Leads In Last Three Iowa Polls Released

Ron Paul
From a strategic standpoint, Ron Paul probably doesn't want to raise expectations in the Iowa caucuses.  After all the media always judges one's performance versus expectations.   It appears though that  those expectations may get raised.  Paul leads in the three Iowa polls released thus far this week.
Paul 28
Gingrich 25
Romney 18
Perry 11

Paul 23
Romney 20
Gingrich 14
Perry 10
Bachmann 10
Santorum 10

Insider Advantage
Paul 24
Romney 18
Perry 16
Gingrich 13
Bachmann 10

In addition to designating one candidate the winner, look for a second tier candidate - Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum, to also get a "winner" designation from the media.  They are all three in the fortunate position of having very low expectations that they might be able to exceed at the caucus.  The two of those three  who fail to clear the bar in Iowa will probably drop out of the race.

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