Thursday, December 29, 2011

Latest Iowa Poll Shows Santorum Surge, Three Way Tie At Top With Six Candidates in the Running

Insider Advantage released a poll today that shows how extremely competitive next Tuesday's Iowa caucus should be. Three candidates - Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Speaker Newt Gingrich are all tied at 17% (when rounded off).  Three other candidates - former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Texas Governor Rick Perry are all in double figures.

Let's look at the detailed polling results.

Total Support
Paul  17.3
Romney 17.2
Gingrich 16.7
Santorum 13.4
Bachmann 11.8
Perry 10.5

Support Among 18-29 year olds
Bachmann 24.6
Paul 21.6
Gingrich 16.3

Support Among 30-44 year olds
Paul 20.9
Bachmann 20.2
Gingrich 19.6

Support Among 45-64 year olds
Santorum 19.5
Paul 17.5
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 16.l8

Support of those older than 65
Romney 28.3
Perry 15.8
Gingrich 13.4

Men
Paul 23.1
Gingrich 16.8
Bachmann 15.5

Women
Romney 23.3
Gingrich 16.7
Santorum 15.8

Independents
Paul 32.9
Santorum 14.6
Gingrich 12.8

Note:  There were not enough black or Hispanic voters polled to offer reliable comparisons of the support each candidate had within particular races/ethnicities.

Insider Advantage conducted a poll just 10 days earlier.  Here is the result of that poll.

Iowa (12/18)
Paul 23.9
Romney 18.2
Perry 15.5
Gingrich 12.9
Bachmann 10.1
Santorum 2.9

Conclusions:
  • The conventional wisdom is that Paul, Romney and Gingrich are competing for first place in Iowa.  Actually this poll shows it is more open than that.  Santorum, Bachmann and Perry all have an outside shot of winning the caucus. 
  • Santorum seems to surging, taking advantage of the support for other candidates dropping.  His numbers went from 2.9% to 13.4% in just 10 days.
  • Gingrich's support actually went up from 12/18 to 12/28, from 12.9% to 16.7%.  That doesn't seem consistent with other polling which shows support for the former Speaker wilting under constant attacks.
  • Romney has the most appeal to women while Paul is strongest among male voters.
  • Paul has a strong appeal to Iowa independents.  He is undoubtedly will bring new voters to the Iowa caucus.
  • Romney does not appeal to independents in Iowa.  Only 9.5% of the independents in that state identify Romney as the candidate they would support.  He is not just behind Paul when it comes to independents, he's also behind Santorum (14.6%) and Gingrich (12.8%).

3 comments:

HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

Infowars is calling this poll flawed in that it did not count democrats and independents.

http://www.infowars.com/cnn-poll-fundamentally-flawed-romney-is-not-leading-paul-in-iowa/

Paul K. Ogden said...

I don't know why it would say that. The poll specifically had Democrats and a large number of Independents included. In fact I summarized the fact that Paul had a huge lead among indepdnents in the polls.

I reviewed the link. The link discredits a CNN poll. This is not the CNN poll.

Nicolas Martin said...

More evidence that it was a mistake to enfranchise women and young people.