Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Why Is the State GOP Organization Helping Defend a Safe Indianapolis Council Seat?

Councilor Jeff Cardwell
CORRECTION:  This post contains a correction.  I had originally misread the $27,500 regarding the transfer to the county GOP, as coming from the GOP instead of going to the county GOP.  My apologies for the confusion.

According to the 2010 baseline numbers, incumbent Republican councilors represent 8 of 13 council districts with less than 60% Republican majorities and thus would be considered competitive.  Three of those council districts held by Republican Councilors (McHenry, Scales and McQuillen) actually have Democratic majorities.  Then you have the four county at-large races where the Democrats have a base vote between 55% and 60%.  Republicans won 3 of those races in 2007 and desperately need a similar performance in order to keep control of the council. 

Given the extraordinary need for resources in those highly competitive races, it is not clear why the State Republican Party would contribute $12,375 as an in-kind contribution to District 23 Republican Jeff Cardwell for printing and postage costs involved in a mailing for his race against Democrat Scott Coxey.   District 23 is not one of 12 competitive districts noted above (counting the at-large positions). It is a district in 2010 which was just under 67% Republican, i.e. a 2-1 edge for Republicans. It is one of the most safe Republican seats on the Council. With all due respect to Coxey, Cardwell does not have to spend a dime to win that district.   The State GOP should spend its money on council races where the Republicans are desperately trying to hold onto their seats.

6 comments:

Gary R. Welsh said...

Paul, You are completely misreading his campaign report. Cardwell made those contributions to the party--they are listed as expenditures by his committee. He received some very large contributions from people outside Indianapolis and then turned around and gave big money back to the party. Look at Jason Holladay's report. They are dumping big money into his campaign when he doesn't have a prayer of beating Angela Mansfield. They're doing nothing for Christine Scales. If they lose Scales' seat, they will no doubt lose control of the council.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Thanks, Gary. I got tipped off about the mistake (regarding the contribution to the county GOP instead of the other way around) which I was fixing when you wrote your comment. I didn't look closely enough at the report. That's what I get for working on a federal appeal while blogging.

I think the Scales seat is important, but even if she wins that the D's can still easily control the Council by winning the at-large seats. Also, McHenry is in serious trouble.

Had Enough Indy? said...

Jason Holliday is running for Cockrum's old seat, not against Mansfield.

Gary R. Welsh said...

Check out how much money is going into keeping that seat safe. The Ds have no chance of winning Cockrum's old seat.

Paul K. Ogden said...

I don't know why they're putting money into safe R seats. Holliday is not going to lose Cockrum's seat ...unless he commits a felony in the next three weeks.

Crossed said...

Think 2 more elections down the road, and where the state wants these candidates to be. That will explain the money. They are investing in something else, not in the council seats.