|Democratic Mayoral Candidate|
Here we are less than three months away from the Indianapolis mayoral election and neither side has released polling information. The only hint there has been polling is Mayor Ballard supporter Abdul Hakim-Shabazz, who suggested that the Ballard people had polling showing him with a "double digit lead." Double digits could mean 10 points, which frankly at this point would be a very poor lead by the Mayor. Ballard needs to be up 20-25 points at this time. His policies undoubtedly poll much, much worse than does the Mayor. When the Marion County Democratic Chairman Ed Treacy and Democratic candidate Melina Kennedy start connecting Ballard with those unpopular policies, Ballard's numbers are going to sink like a rock. Ballard needs a sizable lead to overcome that onslaught.
|Mayor Greg Ballard|
Kennedy, on the other hand, suffers from unrealistic expectations about her candidacy. In solidly Democratic Marion County, many of her supporters expect her to easily win this race. If she releases a poll showing Ballard with a 15 point lead or higher, then concern about her chances might increase so much as to dampen her fundraising and volunteer support.
Given Kennedy is running against an incumbent mayor who has rarely been challenged in 3 1/2 years, it is unrealistic to expect that she would be ahead or even close at this point.
Where is the polling less than three months out? Well the lead is obviously not big enough for Ballard or small enough for Kennedy for those campaigns to release polling information. My guess that means Ballard is up by 15 points.