Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Miscellaneous Thoughts (and Predictions) on Local Politicians

Carl Brizzi - Political career is over. I think there is about a 60% chance the FBI or IRS goes after him.

Mayor Greg Ballard - I don't think it is 100% certain he runs for a second term. Regardless, unless the Democrats put up a person who commits a major felony during the course of a campaign, Ballard easily loses any re-election bid. He's given the D's so much powerful ammunition to use against him, the problem will be choosing which issues to use.

Mark Massa - Talk about the right guy in the wrong place at the wrong time. He'll end up paying the price for Brizzi's sins.

Dennis Fishburn - He has no idea that the highlight for his race was slating...that Tom John, David Brooks and gang used him to deny McAtee slating not because they planned on helping Fishburn win in May, but because McAtee had stood up to them and they didn't like it. Fishburn's goose is cooked.

Bart McAtee - I think he'll not only win against Fishburn in May, he will win easily. It is a tossup whether McAtee or Massa is the Republican candidate's best change to win this Fall. Both of them have uphill battles. McAtee, even though he's working in the administration of Sheriff Frank Anderson, may not have to carry the incumbent's baggage up the hill like Massa will have to.

Carlos May - Good, energetic candidate for Congress. His approach to running reminds me of the energy and enthusiasm I had as a young man when I started working in the GOP organization in 1986. Unfortunately the Marion County GOP has a way of eating its young If I had a nickel for every talented, hard-working Republican who left the Marion County GOP organization because leadership is so corrupt and uninterested in typical Republican issues, I'd be rich.

4th District Race - In the poll weeks back, Todd Rokita was at 40% while his next closest competitor State Senator Mike Young was at 10%. Outgoing Congressman Buyer's endorsed candidate Senator Brandt Herschman was at 8%. I thought the Rokita 40% was surprisingly low. His 40% is based strictly on name ID. There is plenty of chance for Young or Herschman to close the gap on this one.

Greg Bowes - I would not write Marion County Assessor Greg Bowes in the contest for prosecutor. He has much better name ID than slated Terry Curry which is worth quite a bit of money. If Bowes could find a way to capitalize on the issue of going after white collar crime and political corruption, and Curry ignored the issue, Bowes could get within striking distance of Curry.

Melina Kennedy, Brian Williams, Jose Evans, Ron Gibson - I would think that Melina Kennedy would have the edge in the Democratic mayor race with Brian Williams second. While Kennedy normally would have negatives to exploit given her role in some of the questionable Peterson corporate welfare, Williams isn't in a position to take advantage of that. Neither is Ballard either as his corporate welfare, insider dealing policies in office have mirrored those pursued by former Mayor Peterson and Kennedy.

Carmel Mayor James Brainard - Thankfully people are finally starting to wake up to this big spending RINO.

Ryan Vaughn - If Ryan is politically savvy, which I have not yet seen evidence of, he would start laying the political groundwork now to move to another county as many Marion County Republican politicians have done. Come 2011 the Marion County GOP Establishment Republicans who love corporate welfare and don't particularly care for the issues and conservative philosophy that unite Republicans, people like Vaughn, are likely to be on the run. I could see a Carmel Councilor Ryan Vaughn working with Mayor Brainard, trying to find ways to take money away from taxpayers and subsidize various business ventures cooked up by Brainard. I could see a Ryan Vaughn running for Hamilton County Prosecutor. I don't think Vaughn is the type of candidate who would be good in a competitive district that involves a lot of retail campaigning. He's better sucking up to powerful people and running in safe Republican districts.

Like Mayor Ballard, I don't think it's a lock that Vaughn runs for re-election. He could take some time off, make some money lobbying and relocate his family to Hamilton County which offers more promising GOP opportunities.

Tom John - Expect a contingent of high powered Republicans to come to his office after the disastrous 2011 municipal election to ask for his resignation.

6 comments:

timb said...

Rokita is such an *ss. If he weren't running against a dingbat like Young, I'd give some money. But, when the choice is super-ambitious prick versus super-corrupt prick, the choice is tough...

Meanwhile, Republican leave Marion County, Paul, because Marion County is not Republican. The Party has spent so much time screwing the minority populations and shunting them into poor schools that now minorities are the majority, the Republicans are toast.

By the way, what conservative principles do Marion County Republicans NOT believe in: they're frightened of minorities and immigrants, keep taxes absurdly low, are in the pocket of every half-wit businessman, have no interest in infrastructure (save building stadia for the rich of the doughnut counties), and sell public services off to the highest public bidder. That IS conservatism, Paul, not the Barry Goldwater, libertarian dream you have.

Paul K. Ogden said...

I'm sorry timb I think most people's version of conservative Republcian philosophy doesn't include selling off city assets in deals that hurt future generations or handing billionare Simons $15 million dollars of taxpayer money.
You suggest that is "conservativm." Having worked in the Marion County GOP I can tell you the leadership does not care about conservative political philsophy.

One of the hallmarks of the Marion County GOP leadership is that leadership runs the organization as a typical big party machine. Machine politics which ran many big cities in the 1800s and early 1900s were not about political philosophy - they were about using government to make people wealthy and give people jobs. (Much of the old patronage has been replaced by the new patronage - handing out privatization contracts to contributors) That's exactly what the Ballard administration and Tom John are interested in.

You think the current GOP leadership is interested in keeping taxes low or reducing spending? They couldn't care less. You think they're interested in other . Or conservative issues conservative issues like guns and abortion. Nope.

I'm not sure how Republicans have "screwed" minorities over. If anything the Democrats have been doing that for years. How many Marion County Ds in the legislature support charter schools for example? There is nothing that more helps the minority community than charter schools.

I would agree though that there is a major divide in the GOP. Contrary to what you might think, it is the more liberal Establishment, Country Club wing of the Marion County GOP that is the most uncomfortable with a diverse party, much more so than the more populist wing of the GOP. Honestly, the Country Club types have no problem with minorities as long as they know what their place is and do what they're told and do not rock the boat. (Perfect example is Olgen Williams.) But then again, that's what the GOP leadership expects from all candidates it supports regardless of color.

Cato said...

Didn't Massa just resign?

Larry said...

Thanks Paul for the insightful article. My question revolves around what can be done to turn this mess around though? Many inside and outside the GOP in Marion county are aware of the trouble we are in, but as long as Tom John remains a dictator inside the party we are unable to fix things. Tom doesn't care what people think and even the mob that is sure to show up at his office with pitchforks and torches isn't likely to make him change his direction.

Its fine to point out all the massive damage that he is doing to the party but what we really need to be doing is organizing around him and others that are more interested in building their own power base than helping the residents of Marion County.

Lets start putting pressure on Tom John to tie his leadership to the success of GOP candidates. If he can't deliver strong candidates that can win the support of Marion County Residents then he should step aside and lets someone who can lead.

I mean how much of a blood bath do we take before someone says enough is enough?

Paul K. Ogden said...

Larry,

You said:

"Lets start putting pressure on Tom John to tie his leadership to the success of GOP candidates. If he can't deliver strong candidates that can win the support of Marion County Residents then he should step aside and lets someone who can lead.

I mean how much of a blood bath do we take before someone says enough is enough?"


I think there will and should be a blood bath after the 2011 election. That's a terrible thing to say, but what if the more populist wing of the GOP has the grond seceded to them and once they are successful the Establishment types come in and take over.

I cannot emphasize enough that the Country Club Republican wing didn't win in 2007. What they won was the transition - they took advantage of the naiveness of the people who worked for Ballard during his campaign and Ballard's own political inexpierience and the Mayor's complete lack of loyalty to the people who got him elected.

Bill said...

You kind of have to feel bad for May and Fishburn. They both got sold a bill of goods that John knew he could never deliver.

John thought that McAtee would just fade way and Fishburn would win be default.Another bad mistake by Tom John.Then they tried to stop McAtee with a legal issue, they lost. From seeing McAtee at my township meetings it was clear that he was not going anywhere at all. It was pathetic the other night watching Fishburn begging for money at my township meeting on the south side.

I dont want my Sheriff to beg.

I find it discusting that Tom John would take advantage of Fishburns sons shooting. How low can you go to use a young man like that for your own purposes.Is Dennis Fishburn so blind that he cannot see what John is doing with his son. He is useing his son.If I was Dennis Fishburn I would have told them to go to hell, your not going to use my son for your own personal vendetta.

If my calculations are correct Massa will need in excess of $1,000,000 to win his campaign.The party has NO money right now.

May is a smart young man. That young man has been going non stop. I like him a lot.He along with young guns like Aaron Williams are the future of our party.

Paul, I like this blog, you did a great job of putting it all into perspective. It's going to be an interesting election.