Friday, October 24, 2008

Obama's 14 Point Swing in Indiana

Although political polling is a science, it is certainly an inexact science. I've never seen an election where polling results have been all over the map. That's probably due not only to the different polling methods used, but the fact that because of things like caller ID and cell phones, which aren't polled, it is increasingly tough for pollsters to get accurate samples and to account for disparities in who picks up the phone to participate in the poll.

But where polling remains at its absolute best is when the same poll, utilizing the same methodologies, is taken at a later date and a different result is noted. That shows an electorate trend that is hard to dispute.

The Big 10 Battleground Poll conducted in mid-September noted that John McCain had a 4 point lead in Indiana. They ran the same poll, mid October. The result released yesterday showed Barack Obama with a 10 point lead in Indiana.

I've been saying for awhile that I think Obama is going to carry Indiana. The contested Hillary Clinton-Obama primary, which Republicans mocked at the time, has been an enormous catalyst for the Democratic Party in terms of bringing new voters and energy into the party. (You think maybe party insiders, especially Republicans, would finally get the hint and rethink their unquestioned creed that contested primaries are bad for a political party? It's only bad for party bosses who like to pick the candidates rather than the party's voters.) The question is what other races is an Obama tidal wave going to help them win in Indiana?

On the "Morning Joe" show this morning, I saw them comparing this year to 1996. That's wrong...this year is the 1980 election all over again, but in reverse. With respect to Obama, there has been a persistent question out there whether he is qualified for the job and people would be comfortable with him. Same with Reagan in 1980. With respect to Obama, there is an enormous enthusiasm gap between his support and that of McCain's, an enthusiasm gap that polls have trouble capturing. The same was true with regard to the Reagan-Carter race of 1980.

What happened in 1980? Ronald Reagan had a small but significant lead going into the election and won by a huge landslide carrying into office Republicans who were thought to have no chance of winning. That's what Obama may end up doing in 2008.

Stay tuned. I'll make my predictions next week.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

None of the polsters are media have polled African Americans who are supporting the republican ticket either.

Anonymous said...

excuse the typo or"

Mainstream media is campaigning for Obama to be elected president so they can be bailed out with our tax dollars over the next 4 years.

I have noticed the only pictures shown of Obama with his maternal grandmother are when he was a teenagers. He could not have been too close to her. None with his wife and daughters. Strange?