Thursday, March 9, 2023

Is Donald Trump Surging in the Polls?

I heard a couple commentators talk about support for Donald Trump "surging" among Republicans   I took a look at the polls to see if that is true.  Spoiler alert:  It's not.

In analyzing polls you have to be careful to compare apples to apples, oranges to oranges.  Because every pollster employs a different methodology, that means looking at the same polls to see whether
there has been movement over time.  There have only been three polling outfits which have conducted multiple national polls in 2023 and early 2022.  Here is Trump's support as reported by those pollsters.

Harvard Harris
2/22/23  46%
1/19/23  48%
12/15/23  48%
11/17/23  46%

2/7/23  42%
1/17/23  44%

2/25/23   55%
1/21/23  55%
11/19/22  55%
6/29/22   55%

No "surge" is detected in those national polls.   Now let's look at the first primary state - New Hampshire.  Only the University of New Hampshire has been polling in the Granite State on a somewhat regular basis.    This is Trump's support in that state according to that pollster:

University of New Hampshire
1/23/23  30%
6/20/22  37%
10/18/21  43%
7/19/21  47%   

While Trump maintains control over a sizable portion of the GOP electorate in 2022, there is no evidence, at least yet, that percentage is growing.

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