Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Ogden on Politics Prediction: Biden Will Win the Electoral College 322 to 216

In 2016, the website, FiveThirtyEight, predicted Donald Trump has a 29% chance of winning the election.  Twenty-nine percent is not nothing. There are plenty of .290 hitters in the baseball Hall of Fame.

As of writing this, FiveThirtyEight this election gives Donald Trump a 10% chance of winning.  Ten percent is not nothing.  But it is pretty close to nothing.  If you are a .100 hitter you are a really bad hitter, probably a National League pitcher.

I agreed with FiveThirtyEight's odds in 2016 and I agree with them in 2020.  Trump could win this election just like that .100 bad hitting pitcher could stick his bat out and get a lucky hit every now and then.  It could happen...but it doesn't happen very often.

A caveat.  My prediction assumes the election will be conducted fairly.  However, if given the chance, I have little doubt that Trump and his allies will do everything they can to cheat their way to a second term.  But to effectively cheat the election results have to be close.  And it does not appear the results will be close.

Biden will win the electoral college 322-216.  Bet the farm.  

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Let's talk about the swing states and where I think they will end up.

Wisconsin:  Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by .7%.  In the FiveThirtyEight poll average, Biden leads the state by 8.2%.  The Trump people have all but written off the state.  Advantage: Biden.

Michigan:  In 2016, Trump won Michigan by .3%.  Biden currently polls ahead by 8%.  Advantage: Biden.

Pennsylvania:  Of the three states Trump pulled upsets in during the 2016 election - Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - only Pennsylvania, which Trump won by .7% in 2016, remains within his reach.  The FiveThirtyEight poll average has Biden up by 4.8% in the Keystone State.  The Pennsylvania election results seem destined for litigation.   Advantage:  Biden.

Florida:  According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden leads by 2.4% in the state, which is down slightly, and Biden is given a 69% chance of winning the state.  I disagree and would cite in support of my position the strength of the Republican Party in the state, including its ability to pull out close elections, and Biden's well-documented struggles with Cuban-American voters.  Advantage: Trump.

Arizona:  Unlike RealClearPolitics, which shows Biden's lead in Arizona slipping, FiveThirtyEight discounts garbage polls which are almost entirely responsible for the RCP shift in the Grand Canyon state.  FiveThirtyEight has Biden with a 2.6 lead in the polls and a 68% chance of winning.  Agreed.  I think the Phoenix suburbs, which Republicans have to win to be prevail in Arizona, will doom Trump and Republican Senator Martha McSally.  Advantage: Biden.

Georgia:  Speaking of suburbs, Atlanta's suburbs have been moving sharply against the Republicans.  High turnout in the state should favor Biden.  FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 58% chance of winning the state.  I concur.  Advantage: Biden

North Carolina:  Same story.  Trump in trouble in the suburbs. FiveThirtyEight has Biden with a 1.9% edge in the polling and a 65% chance of winning the Tarheel State.  I expect the North Carolina suburbs will hand Trump a defeat.   Advantage: Biden.

Ohio:  Ohio has a lot of large cities, surrounded by populous suburbs.  Yet, I'm constantly told how Republican the state is.  Trump leads in the polling average by .6% in Ohio with a 54% chance of winning.  I am reluctant to go against my instincts, but that's what I'm going to do.  Advantage: Trump.

Iowa:  The recent Des Moines Register poll had Trump up by 7 points in Iowa. Other polls show the state as much closer. The FiveThirtyEight poll average has Trump with a 1.5 point lead and a 61% chance of winning.  I agree.  Advantage: Trump

Nevada: Surprisingly close, but Biden will win.  Advantage: Biden

Minnesota:  Not as close as the Trump campaign hoped.  Advantage: Biden.

New Hampshire: Hillary Clinton barely won New Hampshire in 2016, but Biden is coasting to victory in the state.  Advantage: Biden.

Texas:  I am very suspicious of the huge, historic turnout in the Lone Star state.  But I can't let that override my instinct that Texas is not yet ripe for the Democrats to pick.  Advantage Biden.

Nebraska (2nd):  Biden has a comfortable lead in the polls in that district.  Advantage: Biden

Maine (2nd):  Biden has a narrow lead inthe polls in that district.  Advantage Biden.

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