Wednesday, July 15, 2020

More Disastrous Trump Polls Released Today

Just this afternoon, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by 15 points nationally, 52-37.  That is nearly a doubling of the lead Trump enjoyed in a Quinnipiac poll conducted just last month.  An NBC/Wall Street Journal released this afternoon, shows Biden up 11 points nationally.  It was a 7 point lead last month.

Of course, we don't have a national election for President.  We have 50 different (51 if you count DC) elections for President.  Thus, polls in swing states are much more important than national polls.

But an examination of the polling in the swing states shows trouble there as well.  Monmouth University (an A+ rated pollster) published a poll today showing Biden up 13 points in the Keystone State among registered voters, 7 to 10 points if you screen for likely voters.  A Change Research poll, also released today, has Biden up 8 points in Pennsylvania among likely voters, and up by 7 in Florida, and 6 in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump is so far behind in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign might be inclined to write the states off.  But then there would be virtually no place else to go on the electoral map..  Only Wisconsin would be left among the triumvirate of swing states that put Trump over the top in 2016.  Trump loses Pennsylvania and Michigan, he has to win Wisconsin and every other state he won in 2016.  The problem is he's running behind in Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and is running even in Iowa, Texas and Georgia.  Those are all states Trump won in 2016.  There is no place on the map where the Trump campaign can pick up a state it lost in 2016.

I do thing there is a possibility that come September, faced with a landslide loss, Trump just walks away from the race.  The problem is if Trump is not re-elected in 2020, there is a real chance he is prosecuted in 2021.

No comments: