Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Tuesday's Polls: Michigan, Iowa, Kentucky, and Tennessee

Some new polls today came out that may portend bad news for Republicans in November.

Michigan - President:  Poll by Kiaer Research has Trump down 15 points in a swing state.  This could be considered an outlier but a poll by Epic-MRA  released at teh end of last week had Trump down 12 points in Michigan. May's polls had Biden with leads ranging from 2 to 9 points.  I think Michigan is
going to lose its "battleground status" this election.  It does not appear to be in play.

Michigan - Senate:  The Republicans best hope to pick up a non-Alabama Senate seat was Michigan.  I used the past tense deliberately.   The two most recent polls have Republican challenger John James losing to incumbent Democrat Senator Gary Peters by 16 and 15 points.  The other June poll had him 9 points behind.  The Republicans will certainly pull the funding from that race and choose instead to play defense.

Iowa - President:  Today's poll in the Hawkeye state has Biden running even with Trump.  That comes on the heels of another June poll showing Trump only ahead by one point in Iowa.  Trump won Iowa by nearly 10 points in 2016.

Iowa  - Senate:  According to a poll release today, Republican Senator Joni Ernst is running three points behind her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield.  This comes on the heels of another early June poll that shows Ernst trailing by 2 points.  Before 2020, Joni Ernst was considered a fairly safe bet to win re-election.  No more.

Kentucky - Senate:  Democrats shouldn't get too excited, but a poll out of Kentucky shows Amy McGrath one point up on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  Since it was a poll commissioned by an interest group with an agenda (pro term limits; McGrath supports them, McConnell opposes), I am skeptical of it.  The poll also shows Trump up 17 points in the Bluegrass State.  Now that sounds more realistic.

Tennessee President: According to a poll today, Trump leads by 9 points in Tennessee.  That is a bit lower than I expected.   I figured the spread in the Presidential contest would be more like Kentucky.

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