Friday, June 26, 2020

Biden Takes Polling Lead in Key States Trump Won in 2016

Turns out the election everyone said will be close, may not be after all.   In a flurry of swing state polls released yesterday, Democratic challenger Joe Biden has taken the lead in several states Donald Trump won in 2016, many of them by double figures.  

To assist the reader, I am also including the final Real Clear Politics polling average in that state before the 2016 election as well as the final result in 2016.  That will show that Biden is polling significantly ahead of Hillary Clinton's poll numbers going into the 2016 election.


Michigan (16 electoral votes)
---Hodas & Associates (600 likely voters):  Biden +18
---Siena College/New York Times (653 registered voters):  Biden +11

2016 RCP Average:  Clinton  +3.6
2016 Result: Trump +0.3


Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
---Redfield  & Wilton Strategies (846 LV):  Biden +9
---Hodas & Associates (600 LV): Biden +17
---Siena College/New York Times (655 RV): +11

2016 RCP Average: Clinton +6.5
2016 Result:  Trump +0.7


Pennsylviania (20 electoral votes)
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1,125 LV):  Biden +10
---Siena College/New York Times (651 RV): Biden +10
---Hodas & Associates (600 LV):   Biden +12

2016 RCP Average: Clinton +2.1
2016 Result: Trump +0.7


Florida (29 electoral votes)
---Fox News (1,1010 RV): Biden +9
---Siena College/New York Times (651 RV): Biden +6
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1,079 LV): Biden +4

2016 RCP Average: Trump +0.4
2016 Result:  Trump +1.2


North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
---Fox News (1,012 RV):  Biden +2
---Siena College/New York Times (653 RV):  Biden +9
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (902 LV): Biden +6

2016 RCP Average:  Trump +0.8
2016 Result: Trump +3.6


Arizona (11 electoral votes)
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (865 LV): Biden +4
---Siena College/The New York Times (650 RV): Biden +7

2016 RCP Average:  Trump +4.0
2016 Result: Trump +3.5


Georgia (16 electoral votes)
---Fox News (1,013 RV): Biden +2

2016 RCP Average: Trump +4.9
2016 Result: Trump +5.1


Texas (38 electoral votes)
---Fox News (1,001 RV): Biden +1

2016 RCP Average:  Trump +11.7
2016 Result:  Trump +9.0


***

Of course the race is fluid and could change dramatically before Election Day which is a long way off.  I lie.  The election is not that far off.  Further, in my decades of studying election races, I have never seen less fluidity in polling than I have when it comes to Donald Trump, especially now, after 3 1/2 years.  While voters may drift a bit from one camp to another, do not expect dramatic changes in the numbers.  A tightening of the numbers probably, but I doubt, come Election Day, we will see Trump regain the lead in most of the key swing states cited above. 

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