
Michigan (16 electoral votes)
---Hodas & Associates (600 likely voters): Biden +18
---Siena College/New York Times (653 registered voters): Biden +11
2016 RCP Average: Clinton +3.6
2016 Result: Trump +0.3
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (846 LV): Biden +9
---Hodas & Associates (600 LV): Biden +17
---Siena College/New York Times (655 RV): +11
2016 RCP Average: Clinton +6.5
2016 Result: Trump +0.7
Pennsylviania (20 electoral votes)
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1,125 LV): Biden +10
---Siena College/New York Times (651 RV): Biden +10
---Siena College/New York Times (651 RV): Biden +10
---Hodas & Associates (600 LV): Biden +12
2016 RCP Average: Clinton +2.1
2016 Result: Trump +0.7
Florida (29 electoral votes)
---Fox News (1,1010 RV): Biden +9
---Siena College/New York Times (651 RV): Biden +6
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1,079 LV): Biden +4
2016 RCP Average: Trump +0.4
2016 Result: Trump +1.2
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
---Fox News (1,012 RV): Biden +2
---Siena College/New York Times (653 RV): Biden +9
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (902 LV): Biden +6
2016 RCP Average: Trump +0.8
2016 Result: Trump +3.6
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
---Redfield & Wilton Strategies (865 LV): Biden +4
---Siena College/The New York Times (650 RV): Biden +7
2016 RCP Average: Trump +4.0
2016 Result: Trump +3.5
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
---Fox News (1,013 RV): Biden +2
2016 RCP Average: Trump +4.9
2016 Result: Trump +5.1
Texas (38 electoral votes)
---Fox News (1,001 RV): Biden +1
2016 RCP Average: Trump +11.7
2016 Result: Trump +9.0
***
Of course the race is fluid and could change dramatically before Election Day which is a long way off. I lie. The election is not that far off. Further, in my decades of studying election races, I have never seen less fluidity in polling than I have when it comes to Donald Trump, especially now, after 3 1/2 years. While voters may drift a bit from one camp to another, do not expect dramatic changes in the numbers. A tightening of the numbers probably, but I doubt, come Election Day, we will see Trump regain the lead in most of the key swing states cited above.
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