
But Democrats, since
Trump's election in 2016, have been energized and mobilized, even in the
Hoosier state. That's showing up in the numbers.
I did a comparison of
the D v. R vote in Indiana state house races, 2016 v. 2018. In particular
I looked at those that had major party candidates squaring off in the district
in both years. Of the 100 house races, I found 50 had major party
competition in 2016 and 2018. Of those 50, Democratic
candidates saw an increase in their percentage of the vote in 37 districts
Not surprisingly, the
greatest movement toward Democrats has been in the more suburban districts,
particularly around Indianapolis. Below is a chart showing the numbers in the districts in which Democrats gained 3% or more.
Dist
|
|
|
Change
|
Winner 2018
|
||
87
|
52.2%
|
62.2%
|
10.0%
|
Hamilton (D)
|
||
88
|
34.7%
|
44.5%
|
9.8%
|
Bosma (R)
|
||
37
|
36.0%
|
45.5%
|
9.5%
|
Huston (R)
|
||
26
|
47.4%
|
56.7%
|
9.3%
|
Campbell (D)
|
||
75
|
30.8%
|
38.8%
|
8.0%
|
Bacon (R)
|
||
81
|
39.1%
|
46.3%
|
7.2%
|
Carbaugh (R)
|
||
39
|
|
|
6.9%
|
Torr (R)
|
||
90
|
33.3%
|
39.7%
|
6.4%
|
Speedy(R)
|
||
93
|
32.6%
|
37.6%
|
5.0%
|
Frizzell (R)
|
||
41
|
22.1%
|
26.8%
|
4.7%
|
Brown (R)
|
||
63
|
28.2%
|
32.8%
|
4.6%
|
Lindauer (R)
|
||
15
|
45.7%
|
50.2%
|
4.5%
|
Chyung (D)
|
||
60
|
36.6%
|
41.0%
|
4.4%
|
Mayfield (R)
|
||
89
|
45.4%
|
49.5%
|
4.1%
|
Kirchhofer (R)
|
||
55
|
23.7%
|
27.8%
|
4.1%
|
Ziemke (R)
|
||
84
|
33.9%
|
37.4%
|
3.5%
|
Morris (R)
|
||
23
|
29.6%
|
33.0%
|
3.4%
|
Manning (R)
|
||
58
|
33.4%
|
36.7%
|
3.3%
|
Burton (R)
|
||
32
|
25.1%
|
28.4%
|
3.3%
|
Cook ( R)
|
Obviously, the transformation of retiring Speaker Brian Bosma's district into a competitive battleground stands out Bosma could
have faced some stiff competition in 2020. Now that he is bowing out,
picking up seat will be an even bigger priority for the Democrats.
Just north of Bosma's
district is that of the next Speaker-Elect Todd Huston. Like Bosma, Huston's
district has suddenly become competitive. Making him a target in the next
election will likely cause him to spend precious resources protecting his own turf instead of helping fellow Republican incumbents.
Then there is District 91. Anchored on the southwest side of Indianapolis, the district is represented by Republican Robert Behning. In 2016, Democrats did not even have a challenger against Behning. In 2018, Democrats not only found a candidate, he received 40% of the
vote.
Note: as a rule of thumb, once the losing party gets to 40%, it is considered a competitive district. When it gets to 45%, it is highly competitive. That is a very general rule though as factors like incumbency affect the competitiveness of a district.
Note: as a rule of thumb, once the losing party gets to 40%, it is considered a competitive district. When it gets to 45%, it is highly competitive. That is a very general rule though as factors like incumbency affect the competitiveness of a district.
There were a few House districts in which the Democratic incumbents lost ground in 2018. Districts in which Democrats saw their numbers drop 3% or more are in the following table:
Dist
|
|
|
Change
|
Winner 2018
|
||
65
|
37.3%
|
30.7%
|
-6.6%
|
May (R)
|
||
66
|
60.3%
|
54.6%
|
-5.7%
|
Goodin (D)
|
||
56
|
38.7%
|
33.1%
|
-5.6%
|
Barrett (R)
|
||
11
|
39.5%
|
34.7%
|
-4.8%
|
Aylesworth (R)
|
||
42
|
43.4%
|
39.6%
|
-3.8%
|
Morrison (R)
|
||
68
|
24.9%
|
21.3%
|
-3.6%
|
Lyness (R)
|
Those are the more rural
districts. In addition to Goodin's district, Republicans
appear to have an excellent shot at picking up District 35 which went from
52.5% Democrat in 2016 to 50.6% in 2018.
As Republicans hold 67 of the 100 seats in the Indiana House, the GOP will almost certainly hold onto its majority after the 2020 election. But the data suggest Republicans will continue to lose seats as suburban districts continue to become more favorable to Democrats.
As Republicans hold 67 of the 100 seats in the Indiana House, the GOP will almost certainly hold onto its majority after the 2020 election. But the data suggest Republicans will continue to lose seats as suburban districts continue to become more favorable to Democrats.
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