It is not that Brooks was negligent in drawing the council maps. His charge was to draw the maps in such a way (by creating a significant number of narrow Republican majority districts) as to give the GOP a chance to win a majority of council seats in the 2015 election. He did exactly that. The problem was those numbers would not hold. It turns out that not only have the Republican numbers continued their two decade long bleed, what appears to be a Trump effect has caused GOP numbers to hemorrhage.
I said at the time the Democrats, who unsuccessfully challenged the Brooks map in court, would grow to love the Brooks map. The love begins this year.
Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 15 and 16 are northside council districts won by the GOP in 2015. Mid-term elections are the most similiar to municipal elections in terms of turnout. To establish a baseline, I looked at the Marion Recorder's Office election results in those districts in 2014 versus 2018. Here is the table I put together of districts the GOP won in 2015.
|GOP Districts||2014 GOP Baseline||2018 GOP Baseline||Difference|
Those are not good numbers. Seven northside GOP districts are deeply underwater. Even a southside GOP district, District 18, appears to be competitive.
For the record, the only district the Republicans appear to have any shot of winning is Council District 22 held by Jared Evans who upset the Republican in that district in 2015.. But that is at best a long shot. In District 22 the GOP base went from 54.8 in 2014 to 46.5 in 2018.