Friday, November 9, 2018

Victory Margins for Indiana GOP Congressional Candidates Fall in 2018

Normally a political analyst would not compare a presidential election to a mid-term because they have dramatically different turnouts.  Tuesday's mid-term turnout rivaled that of a presidential election, so a comparison is possible so I decided to look at Indiana's congressional races 2016 v. 2018.  Here is a table with the information I gathered:

District
Winning 2018 Candidate
2016 Winning Margin
2018 Winning Margin
GOP Vote Margin Decline
1st
Visclosky (D)
N/A (No R candidate)
34.8%
N/A
2nd
Walorski (R)
22.3
9.6
-12.7
3rd
Banks  (R)
47.1
29.4
-18.3
4th
Baird  (R)
34.1
28.2
-3.9
5th
Brooks  (R)
27.2
13.4
-13.8
6th
G. Pence (R)
30.9
42.4
-11.5
7th
Carson (D)
24.3
29.8
-5.5
8th
Buschon (R)
32.0
28.8
-3.2
9th
Hollingsworth (R)
13.7
13.0
-.7


The smallest GOP decline came in the mostly rural 9th Congressional district located in the southern part of the state.  The fact Hollingsworth held onto that district by approximately the same margin as 2016 despite having a well-funded challenger who was constantly on television is significant. 

Congressman Jim Banks saw his margin trimmed the most, losing 18.3% on his winning margin in CD 3.  However, he still won CD 3 by nearly 30 points so that district is far from being competitive.

In CD 2, Republican Jackie Walorski saw her winning margin trimmed from 22.3% to 9.6% . While that seems close, Walorski pre-Trump has experienced closer races in the north central Hoosier district.

As I predicted, CD 5, the central Indiana district held by Republican Susan Brooks, was significantly closer in 2018 than 2016.  Brooks’ 2016 winning margin in the Indianapolis suburban district was nearly cut in half.  With just a 13.4% winning margin on Tuesday, continued GOP weakening in the northern Indianapolis suburbs could put the district into play.

In the one Indiana Democratic congressional district with an available comparison, the 7th District based entirely in Indianapolis, the Republican losing margin increased from 24.3% to 29.8%. 

What undoubtedly has allowed Hoosier Republican members of Congress to avoid the fate of many of their losing colleagues is that every Republican district in Indiana has a substantial amount of rural area in it.  Further, instead of using the Indianapolis’ suburbs to create a single congressional district, several congressional districts were drawn to cut into the Indianapolis suburbs.   The result is that GOP congressional incumbents avoided the election night loss experienced by many of their colleagues.

2 comments:

leon dixon said...

Republican losses were due, in part, to the media creation =POS John McCain. R's blathered for years about Obamacare and how the R's were going to fix it. Judge Roberts did not fix it, but he gave it a mortal blow. The House passed some sort of fix and it went to the R Senate where the traitor, McCain, killed it and the Republican Brand. He was an asshole.

Paul K. Ogden said...

I believe anyone who attacks American values like freedom of speech, freedom of press, due process of law, the rule of law, federalism and separation of powers, someone who constantly attacks America's allies while lending aid and comfort to dictators, someone who likely worked with the Russians to win an American election, should be called a "traitor." That doesn't describe McCain though. it describes Donald J. Trump.