Thursday, December 14, 2017

Some Republicans Finally See Political Cliff in Alabama Results

Some Republicans, myself included, warned about the disaster that would await the GOP if the party nominated  Donald Trump, a man we said was completely unfit to be elected President.  And while we naysayers have been proven spectacularly right about Trump's ignorance and lack of basic competence for the position he holds, it is the President's foul and intemperate personality which has turned out to be the the most damaging to the GOP brand.   Trump is turning my Republican Party into the party of assholes and the public doesn't like to vote for assholes.    The number of people identifying Republicans has dropped 5% since Trump's inauguration.  But that number is not nearly as bad as some of those that came out of the Alabama Senate special election won by Democrat Doug Jones over Republican Roy Moore, a candidate who embodies Trumpism and who was enthusiastically supported by the President.

Chris Cizilla of CNN breaks down  points to eight different sets of stats from the Republican's loss in heavily GOP Alabama, numbers that should trouble any Republican concerned about the future of the Party.  They are summarized as follows.

1.  Moore won only among older voters
--Moore won voters over 65 by 19%.  Among voters 18-64 he lost by 8%.    Those older voters which support Trump/Moore style politicians are dying off and being replaced by younger voters who don't like the Trump brand of politics.
2. Women with children voted by Jones.  
--Women with children vote for Jones 65-32, while Jones won women without children by a closer 55-45 margin.  In the past, it is women without children that the GOP has struggled with while the party pretty much breaks even with married children.  

3.  Moderates voted for Jones
--Self-identified moderates voted for Jones 74-25.  This is the same state that has shown up in Trump's post-election poll numbers.  The independents that propelled him over the top seem to have long ago jumped off the Trump train.

4.  Trump's approval rate in Alabama plummeted
--Trump won Alabama by 28 points.  But among Tuesday's voters, Trump's approval rate was 48% while his disapproval rate was 48%.  Moore wasn't just unpopular among Alabama's special election voters, so too was the President.

5,.  More Alabama voters said Jones shared their values than Moore
--While everyone expected that Moore would win with Alabama "values voters," Jones won them 48-46.

6.  Alabama Voters View the Democrats more favorably than the Republican Party
--in the last several election cycles, including 2016, Alabama has been one of the most Republican states in the country.  Yet on Tuesday those Alabama voters told pollsters they approved of the Democratic Party more than the GOP by 47-43.

7.  Republicans strength is increasingly confined to rural areas.
--In cities of 50,000 or more, Jones won by an outstanding 71%.  Traditionally, Republicans made back up ground in highly populated suburbs.   But Moore only beat Jones 51-47 in Alabama suburbs.  Moore did win the rural areas of Alabama 62-36, but being rural those areas have much less vote.

8.  Black Voters Are Turning Out
--In 2012, 28% of the voters in Alabama were black.  That was a record high, not surprisingly since the first African-American President was running for re-election.  Yet that record was broken on Tuesday when black voters made up 29% of the Alabama electorate.  That so many African-Americans would turn out for a special election is astonishing.  Oh, and they voted 96-4 for Jones.

Many Republicans, including me, have warned about the political cliff the Trump train is heading toward. You'd have to be blind not to see that cliff in the Alabama election results.


Veterans for Peace Indianapolis said...

Paul, Trump backed Strange in primary. Not defending Trump. But in the end, shouldn't part of the blame be put on more establishment Rs for not getting behind Mo Brooks instead of lining up for Strange. That really turned the primary into an an FU moment for voters to the establishment and went with Moore. My 2 cents.

Eric Morris

Paul K. Ogden said...


While I think Mo Brooks would have been the best general election candidate and best Senator of all the candidates, I don't see how he would have won if every member of the Establishment had gotten behind him instead of Luther Strange. Brooks did run in the primary and as I recall he lost very badly. I don't see how establishment support would have done more than make his percent a few points higher, but still on the losing side.

leon dixon said...

My guess is that having done their deed and been rewarded for so doing the "ladies" recruited by Mitch McConnell and the Senate R's will NOT be heard of again. Giving away a Senate seat in Alabama was similar to what Indiana "elites" did in giving away a Senate seat to Donnelly. Without consulting any polls at all I don't currently see either R Senate candidate in Indiana for the R's having much excitement among the base.....and the base has little use for the "elites". It is really too bad that the D's don't take the opportunity to dump Joe Donnelly and field a candidate who could win. About any old conservative Democrat would have appeal but it would help if he or she was a real conservative instead of a faux one like their recent gubnatorial one with the walrus imitation.

leon dixon said...

"With Trump’s national approval rating averaging at just 38.5 percent — among the worst of any president in the first year after his election — some might suggest that he is in no position to impose political costs on his opponents. But his approval rating is between 50 and 60 percent in the five states where these vulnerable Democrats are running (except in Indiana, where it is 41 percent), making him a formidable adversary." So, Indiana is disfunctional to begin with. At least it's Rs are.

Anonymous said...

People need to understand that we the people are tired of the normal poticial way, that is why he was elected. Way too much money being spent on things. Government is way out of control.

Paul K. Ogden said...

Anon, and there is less "money spent on things now?" How so? Trump and his minions passed a big tax cut funded not by cutting spending, but by putting $1.5 trillion on a credit card. Now Trump is talking about a big infrastructure bill that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions. And how exactly has Trump brought government into control? Trump supporters seem to live in a fantasy world divorced from reality.