Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Georgia Special Election Portends What the "Trump Effect" Will Be on GOP-Leaning Congressional Districts in 2018

Today voters in the northern Atlanta suburbs go to the polls to vote in a special election, the most expensive congressional race in history.  Democrat Jon Ossoff faces Republican Karen Handel in the battle to replace former congressman and current Secretary of Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price in Georgia House District #6.  Both parties, but especially Democrats, have poured money into the competition for a district that Price won by 23% in 2016, but President Trump only carried by 1%. The national media is focusing on the race as a referendum on Trump.  Republicans have won previous GOP-leaning special districts this year, but in every instance the Republican share of the vote has been substantially down over previous years.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls show Handel with a .2% lead.  Obviously a dead heat.


Karen Handel
Is too much made of this special election as a referendum on President Trump?  Certainly too much is based on who wins or loses.  If Handel, for example, wins by a handful of votes instead of losing by a handful of votes, there shouldn't be too much read into the result. However, the GOP is having to defend this heavily Republican seat is a significant development, apart from the actual result that rolls in tonight.  It should be noted that Georgia HD #6 has a highly education population.  Indeed it is in the top 10 in that measure.  The other nine congressional districts with the most educated populations are represented by Democrats.  There was a time when the more education one had, the more likely a person would be a Republican.  That appears to be changing.

While far from an inspiring candidate, Handel's moderately conservative views better fit the district than the bland Ossoff.  Politically, Ossoff, who is only 30 years old, is a traditional liberal who would be much better suited for a Democratic-leaning congressional district in Massachusetts or California, rather than a Republican-leaning district in Georgia.  Even more importantly than his age and liberal views being a handicap in the district, the biggest negative for Ossoff is that he doesn't actually in House District #6. While not a legal requirement, that issue has proven to be a deal-breaker for challengers who have attempted to convince voters they can properly represent a district in which they don't live. 

What I find most remarkable is that the Democrats, despite recruiting an extremely poor candidate for the district, have a real chance of winning tonight. That speaks volumes about the drag that President Trump will be on the Republicans going into the 2018 congressional elections.  Call it the "Trump Effect."

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

After a miserable eight years of unlawful actions trampling the US Constitution, outright lies, and race-baiting by leftist liberal marxist Barak ("You can keep your doctor, your health plan, and save $2,500 a year") Obama, after the leftist liberal Democrat Congress rammed Obamacare down Americans' throats no matter how strenuously the American people stood up to say "No!" to Obama's massive tax increase/wealth redistribution scheme masquerading as a health care bill, after the Democrat Party choses a the traitorous, dishonest, leftist Hillary Rodham Clinton, after the left liberal Democrat Party instigated and continues to feed a national hissy fit to void the legal election of the President of the United States, etc., etc., etc.,... this observer of the American political scene is not at all surprised Karen Handel was victorious.

Handel's victory informs us the people have had it with liberal Democrats and their mastermind liberal agenda which is harming the nation as it was founded.

With all that being said, I have no doubt that the hate-filled and intolerant left liberal Democrats such as the abysmal Nancy Pelosi and that lugubrious slime ball Chuck Schumer will be at it today screeching anything they can to minimize the huge message Handel's win is sending to politicians of all stripes... but especially the message to left liberal US Constitution hating liberal Democrats that the American people have not forgotten what they have done against the American people and against the laws of the land.

Marxist Democrat Barak Obama has left his Democrat party in shreds and tatters and ensured it will be a minor political voice for quite some time to come if we can only prevent establishment cronies Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan from their usual "party of stupid" actions that always work to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.