Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Indiana Nears Battleground Status As Polls Show Hoosier State 10th Most Competitive

Once a state is deemed to be a "battleground," a state might be close on Election Day, that status ensures numerous visits from presidential candidates and their surrogates.   Indiana hasn't been in that category for decades, despite Barack Obama's upset win in the state (predicted by yours truly) in 2008. It appears though that Indiana may have a close presidential election once again.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows the Trump lead in the Indiana as being only 4.5%. Compared to the polling averages in other states, Indiana is the 10th most competitive state. Here is the top 10 list and which candidate leads in that state:

1. Ohio  .7 (Trump lead)
2. Arizona 1 (Trump lead)
3.  Nevada 2.5 (Clinton lead)
4.  North Carolina 2.7 (Clinton lead)
5.  Alaska 3 (Trump lead)
6.  New Hampshire 3.6 (Clinton lead)
6.  Florida 3.6 (Clinton lead)
8.  Iowa 3.7 (Trump lead)
9.  Minnesota 4.3 (Clinton lead)
10. Indiana 4.5 (Trump lead)

I should note that polling in Alaska has been very limited.

Ohio and Iowa are two states that, although President Obama won them in 2012, Trump leads. Clinton though appears to be offsetting that by leading in North Carolina, a state Romney won in 2012.  Clinton has also taken out of contention several near battleground states that Trump had vowed he could win:

15. Wisconsin 6.7 (Clinton lead)
16. Pennsylvania 6.8 (Clinton lead)
21. Colorado 8 (Clinton lead)
23. Virginia 8.7 (Clinton lead)
27. Michigan 10.7 (Clinton lead)

Is "battleground" status on the Hoosier horizon?

Update:  An alert reader caught that I flipped Minnesota.  Clinton leads in that state, not Trump.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I think you flipped Minnesota